Russia has launched a counteroffensive in the Kursk region, which has once again drawn attention to the objectives of the operation by Ukrainian forces invading the region. According to the Financial Times, this operation was the first major foreign invasion of Russian territory since World War II. Initially, the plan was risky, and despite tactical successes, the strategic benefits remain unclear.
Ukrainian troops, who captured some 1,200 square kilometers of Russian territory in a surprise attack on August 6, changed the narrative of the war and restored faith in Ukraine’s offensive capabilities. However, the key objective – forcing Moscow to divert forces from the east of the country – was not achieved.
Analysts say the success of the invasion now depends on the losses Ukraine will suffer in holding the territory, which could take months. Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, noted that the outcome of the operation depends on the resources each side devotes to this front. He added that Ukraine can distract Russian forces, but it is important for Russia to devote more resources to this.
Russia launched a counteroffensive and said it had recaptured some 63 square kilometers of territory on its left flank. However, sources say Ukrainian forces continue to advance in the north.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky confirmed the start of active actions by the Russian military, but stressed that they did not lead to significant successes. Zelensky also said that Ukraine plans to use the captured Russian territory as a bargaining chip in possible peace talks, indicating its willingness to hold on to it indefinitely.
At the same time, sources say that Ukrainian forces have suspended the introduction of new reserves, focusing on strengthening the defence. According to Lee, Ukraine has long-term commitment to expanding the front in the Kursk region, which will require constant supplies and reinforcements.
The Russian military reportedly initially relied on border troops and conscripts before sending in more capable units. At the same time, military analyst Ruslan Leviev noted that despite Putin’s anger over the Ukrainian advance, Russia did not make emotional decisions, indicating the absence of a rapid response strategy.
Ukraine is still expecting that Russia will have to divert more troops from the eastern front. A Ukrainian intelligence official said Russia had already redeployed some 38,000 personnel, but that the counteroffensive had not yet reached a full scale.
Many analysts, including Lee, believe that the Kursk operation could weaken Russian forces in the long term. However, if Moscow acts in a limited manner, the operation may not bring Ukraine the expected results.
Previously, Cursor reported that
