The forecast of the results of the US presidential elections was based on the hypothesis that a “rational and pragmatic electorate” evaluates the work of the current administration and, based on this, determines its favorite. This is how American history professor Allan Lichtman explained to The Guardian his mistake in determining the winner of the vote that took place on November 5, 2024.
Lichtman attributed his failure to a large amount of misinformation that spread “to every aspect of our society and economy”: inflation, unemployment, the stock market, GDP growth, assistance to disaster victims, illegal immigrants and their crime. , the conflict between Russia. and Ukraine.
“Many people live in an alternative universe and this calls into question the fundamental basis of political decision-making in this country,” – said the teacher.
The professor developed his own system for determining the future winner of the US presidential elections, called “13 keys.” He correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last ten votes. He has been wrong only once since 1984, when a non-Democrat won in 2000. Al-GoreTO George W. Bushand formally Lichtman still made the correct forecast: Gore won more popular votes (543 thousand) than Bush Jr., but fewer electoral votes.
In 2016, he guessed victory. donald trump and just a few days after the vote he predicted that the politician would be dismissed: “It’s just my intuition. They don’t want Trump as president because they can’t control him. “It’s unpredictable.”
In 2024, he predicted a Democrat would win. Kamala Harrisnot Republican Donald Trump.
“We have seen Trump, more than any other time in the history of this country, channel the darkest impulses of American life, things that have always been with us, but that this time intensified exponentially: racism, misogyny, xenophobia , antisemitism. .”, Lichtman continued.
He highlighted the emergence of “something new in our politics that has affected forecasts and may affect future forecasts” and recalled the novel “1984” by George Orwell, in which he indicated that dictatorships are based not only on violence, but also in information control. : “Hunger is abundance, war is peace. “We are in an era of doublethink, and maybe we can get out of it, maybe not.”
The professor’s system is based on “13 keys”, which the professor chose as the main factors of victory, including the state of the economy, the charisma of the candidates, social unrest, foreign policy or military failures, major scandals and the participation of the current president in the elections.
Lichtman said that after posting his 2024 forecast, he began receiving death threats and vulgar messages, and some even tried to break into his home. Unidentified people called the police and asked them to search his house, and his personal information was posted on the Internet.
“This tells me that the United States has reached a new low.” – shared.
The professor admitted that Trump’s cooperation with the billionaire Elon Musk “It broke the predictive model,” but the system will be adjusted for the next elections.
After the 2016 election, which Trump won, the Republican sent Lichtman a message: “Congratulations, professor. Good choice.”
Lichtman is included in Rise Global’s list of the world’s 100 most influential geopolitical experts, ranking 85th. He received his PhD in Modern American History and Quantitative Methods from Harvard University in 1973, and later became an assistant professor of history at the American University, professor in 1980 and professor emeritus in 2011, remembers RBC.
