The EU is entering unknown territory if, in the coming days, the people (EPP), the socialists (S&D) and the liberals (Renew) do not reorient a situation which exploded last week and which threatens the majority which supports the European coalition, leading to unprecedented upheaval. crisis in case blood flows freely and the new European Commission does not obtain the approval of the European Parliament. The follow-up of the European People’s Party of Manfred Weber to the delegation of Alberto Núñez Feijóo against the appointment of Teresa Ribera as vice-president of Competition and Fair and Clean Transition, distancing herself from the president, Ursula Von der Leyen, of his own party, and the flirtation of the popular with the extreme right, with the intention that the socialists and liberals support the candidate of Giorgia Meloni, Raffaele Fitto, as vice-president, are the reasons which sum up the confrontation.
Everything exploded on Tuesday, but to understand what happened, you have to go back to the day before. The day before the European Parliament’s examinations of the six vice presidents appointed by Von der Leyen, Feijóo spoke with Weber and managed to get the leader of the European People’s Party to align with his strategy of exhausting Ribera and, with it, from the Government of Pedro Sánchez. For the German leader, this was not a problem given the tense confrontation he had with the Spanish president in the European Parliament almost a year ago and nor the fact of complicating the life of Ursula von der Leyen, who took office five years ago and with whom He does not have good relations. For the socialists, Weber also obtained a 3×1 because the support of Feijóo’s PP (which is the second largest) is guaranteed at the congress that the EPP will hold at the end of April or May 2025.
After this conversation, Weber agreed with his socialist counterparts, Iratxe García, and liberals, Valérie Hayer, that the evaluations of the vice presidents would be done at the same time. This meant, in practice, a withdrawal from the position of the EPP, which agreed with the far right to leave the leadership of the new European Commission until the end and, concretely, for Ribera to be the last to succeed in examination so that his destiny was linked to that of the Italian Fitto. The maneuver was understood later, when the EPP abandoned the series of evaluations the following week under the argument that Ribera must first give explanations to the Spanish Congress on the management of DANA. During the interrogation of the Spanish socialist, in which the PP of Feijóo even suggested that she could be blamed for the catastrophe, the strategy of attrition became clear.
“The postponement of the assessments has been agreed. “Leaving it for the following week was a unilateral decision that was not informed by either the liberals or the socialists”, they emphasize in the group led by García, who consider that that day there was ” a before and an after” in the relationship with the popular with those who “govern” in the EU. The “distrust” is currently total, the negotiation is on hold, even if contacts continue, and the outcome of what will happen from now on is uncertain.
The approach of the Spanish PP is, in principle, short-term. What I wanted was for Ribera not to be elected this Tuesday. “She was going to be named vice president today, and she will not be,” sources in Genoa stressed while Sánchez’s candidate was still in a tough parliamentary confrontation, which had nothing to do with the hearings from the rest of the party. commissioners. And once the goal was achieved, which means paralyzing the process also for the rest of the candidates at least until next week, the Spanish PP went to party.
The differences between EPI and Feijóo
From here the question arises as to how far Weber is prepared to go in his support of the Spanish People’s Party and, consequently, in its fight against the socialists and liberals. It didn’t take long for the strategy’s shortcomings to become apparent. While the parliamentary hangover still lasted in Brussels, Feijóo seemed to demand a new candidate for the Sánchez government. At that time, Ursula von der Leyen had already declared that she kept her support for Ribera intact. Weber also did not join this assertion, but instead opened himself up to supporting Ribera if she had previously promised to resign if pursued by DANA.
Ribera is referring to the European Commission’s code of conduct, which states that its members will resign if the president asks them to do so. And for the socialists, there are no valid preconditions in exchange for the support they believe the people should give based on the agreement that allowed Von der Leyen’s re-election last July. “We will only respect this agreement between the three families and not enter into any other type of negotiation,” they warn in the socialist ranks.
This announcement, however, has more to do with the EPP’s attempt to force socialists and liberals to support Meloni’s candidate for vice-president of the new EU government, which would mean for the first time elevating European leadership to the extreme RIGHT. This designation is part of Von der Leyen’s approach to the far-right Italian Prime Minister and serves the EPP in its flirtation with the ultra forces in the European Parliament, with which they can obtain an alternative majority that they have already used several times, break the old sanitary cordon. In fact, among the most popular in the package is the Hungarian commissioner, Olivér Várhelyi.
“When a rope is too tight, it breaks,” they warn in the socialist ranks, where they feel humiliated by the agreements that the popular concluded in just five months with the ultras (the latest this week to weaken a law on the green agenda). “The EPP must decide whether it wants to be part of the pro-European alliance. They have two possible majorities. They are not going to use us to whiten their faces from time to time and then, on a daily basis, they are part of another alliance,” these sources emphasize.
With these wickers, the scenarios are varied. One of them is that Manfred Weber’s PP distances itself from its Spanish delegation and allows Ribera’s approval, thus unblocking the situation. From now on, Fitto’s fringe would remain, but his candidacy can still be accepted because in a second vote, only a simple majority is required (and the popular can achieve this with the three forces of the extreme right).
Either everything or nothing
If the blockade persists and the European Parliament does not approve Ribera, the ball will remain in Von der Leyen’s court. The European Parliament does not have the power to revoke a candidate individually because its opinion in this part of the process is not binding but rather constitutes a recommendation. If that happens, the German could ask Spain for another name – which has happened on several occasions. But Sánchez could refuse to make another proposal given that the appointment of commissioners belongs to the member states (and the attribution of functions within the College of Commissioners, to its president).
With a new name or with that of Ribera without having followed the previous procedure, the European Parliament would vote for the entire College of Commissioners. And there, everyone should reveal their cards. Could the EPP vote against its own commissioners, who are in the majority (fourteen) and overthrow the European Commission of its co-religionist Von der Leyen in an unprecedented maneuver in the EU? Would the EPP take a break during this vote? Socialists should answer the same questions regarding Fitto. If the Italian ultimately remains vice-president, would you vote in favor of community government? “I don’t know what will happen,” S&D sources say of the complex process ahead.
For now the procedure has been delayed, although if it is resolved next week, the College of Commissioners will have the opportunity to vote on November 27 in Strasbourg, as initially planned, and will be ready to start its work on December 1 . If the blockade persists, it could be extended and no one will set dates. There is a precedent for delay in the second term of José Manuel Durão Barroso, which began in February and not in November, as stipulated.
Starting “as soon as possible” is what Von der Leyen has always defended and the intention that EU governments have expressed, especially in a complex international scenario, notably due to Donald Trump’s victory in which the community club has been preparing for for some time. time. .
