Poland, which emerged from the Soviet bloc bloodlessly thirty-five years ago and was admitted to the European Union (EU) twenty years ago after having demonstrated its desire for reform, finds itself almost reluctantly on the path to becoming a major European player, driven by the acceleration of an explosive geopolitical context.
Two strong trends illustrate the rise in power of Central Europe’s largest country. First, its economic growth, which, despite the year’s shortfall due to the Covid-19 pandemic, has consistently placed it above the European average for twenty years. Seen from afar, the standard of living of Poles follows an inflexible trajectory: the ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Poland to the average GDP per European, in purchasing power parity, rose from 51% in 2004 to 79% in 2022.
The other figure of this “Polish moment” is the increase in defence spending. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Poland has made a monumental effort to strengthen its security. The target of 4.2% of its GDP in 2024 must rise to 4.7% in 2025. This figure, well above the minimum of 2% set by NATO in 2014, impresses other Europeans, who see the surge on their eastern flank. “The first army of Europe”.
What does Poland, a country with a troubled history and which has so often sought revenge, want? “Nobody here talks about Europe’s first army, I only hear that at international conferences”Katarzyna Pisarska, director of the Warsaw Security Forum, laughs. If that were really the point, she said, “A major effort should be undertaken in recruiting and recruiting.” The defense industry should also be fundamentally reformed: “Nobody has the stomach or the vision to do it.” In 2024, Poles, he continues, dream of large infrastructure and clean energy projects. ; “Putting pride in a powerful army – which is, moreover, a necessity – is a position of the past.”
Broad political consensus
Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski presents a very rational explanation for the increase in the defence budget, with arguments that go straight to the hearts of his compatriots (and his voters). “We take our security seriously. The Russians have shown that when they threaten someone, they follow through on the threat. They threatened Georgia, they invaded it. They threatened Ukraine, they invaded it. Now they are threatening Latvia and Poland. We will never be a Russian colony again.”swears.
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