One of the largest blows that gave tariffs is the cloud of uncertainty that accompanies it. The great fees of the Day of Liberation can be a base scene or remain in simple negotiations on Trump’s weapons. Nevertheless, the Republican has already reached the first commercial agreement, which begins to dissipate this fog of a commercial war, and experts are already looking, based on this, which can be the final result. The answer is not very good: although in the case of agreements, so giant tariffs first announced that the agreement with London reflects that it reflects that it reflects that it reflects that Most likely, the situation is not fixed With the purchase of American products, but the bets that interfere with trade remained.
As the United States itself announced, 10% of the tariffs Cars will remain in force compared to the current 25%. Of course, this will be applied only to the first 100,000 cars that are departed from the UK to the North American market. It should be noted that last year there were no more cars of this limit, so in practice this includes 10% de -phactor de factory fees. Tariffs for steel and aluminum will fall from 25% to 10%, although it will also be limited before the previous tax will work again. Outside these products, the total tariff 10% is maintained without any changes.
From the capital economy, they indicate that this implies a de facto new order in trade between both parties. According to the company, an effective tariff only reduces two points with Agreement up to 11%When before Trump rose to power, it was 1%. This percentage can quickly rise to 14%, if the Republican, as he repeatedly defended, announced 25% of tariffs for pharmaceutical products.
If this is a “roof” …
This is an agreement that the document itself Describe as “Gentlemen Pact” Without any legal value, he unleashed alerts. Firstly, since this is not commercial consent with the use: it is not ratified by Congress and is not an official agreement between countries, but by personal “handshake” of Trump, so the magnate can be rejected and change the conditions or break it at any time.
But the most serious thing is that Great Britain, in principle, should be the simplest country Commercial agreement with the USAThe field both countries have a balanced trade balance, which is precisely the goal that is obsessed with Trump. In addition, both are key partners for a century, and the president constantly praised the “respect” of the “our main ally”. And, despite this, the agreement offers rather poor conditions, supporting almost all the tariffs introduced in April. If this is a “ceiling”, the maximum that any country can strive for, then subsequent agreements can be terrible.
According to Volkmar Bour, Commerzbank Analyst, the agreement clearly concludes, first of all. “This 10% tariff represents the soil that the United States wants to impose. It was clear that No other country that is negotiating with the United States. Of them. ” In this sense, a German expert notes that if before this year an effective tariff against the US world is 2.4%, 10% of the most positive scenarios are now expecting.
“This makes our hypothesis that these 10% will prevail and remain in force for all countries”
This, for Baur, is a full break with the first stage of Trump and shows that trade is faced with a much more sensitive change. “During its first period An effective tariff has only increased from 1.5% to 3%“Now the difference is much greater than” is a failure for a liberal international order than the United States itself helped to establish. “
This will have an appropriate impact on the world economy. This is indicated in the JP Morgan report, in which They assess that 10% of the world tariff From the United States, it will deduct an increase of 1% from all over the planet. This takes into account that the conflict with China is supported, that almost everyone perceives for granted. Even Trump himself, in a conciliatory mode, spoke about 80% of encumbrances in Beijing as an exit from the current figure, although this will still be an exorbitant figure.
JP Morgan himself reflects on his written form, which are not worthy. According to the North American Bank, in the case of a universal tariff of 10% and 60% in China, a coup in China World GDP will be directly 0.7% and 1% indirectly. “The influence of a commercial war will be concentrated on the United States, where it fights against the whole economy. However, the rest of the world will not be protected from damage, ”said Joseph Lupon, a global economist. “
From the fact that they agree that “a trade agreement implies that There will be no wider reduction in tariffs“It will remain valid for all countries throughout Trump’s mandate.”
Trump’s love for tariffs
Самое простое объяснение – это то, что у аналитиков, экономистов и рынков возникают проблемы: Трамп не считает, что тарифы являются «незначительным злом» для использования в качестве переговорного оружия или для защиты некоторых конкретных секторов, но считают, что тарифы хороши сами по себе и, следовательно,, следовательно, и, следовательно,, следовательно, и, следовательно,, следовательно, и, следовательно,, следовательно, и, следовательно, To protect certain tariff sectors, they are good and, therefore, to protect certain sectors, but believes that the tariffs are good and, therefore, are good tariffs and, therefore, to protect some specific sectors, but believes that the tariffs are good and, therefore, are good tariffs and, therefore, for There is no reason to shoot them. Tariffs, for the magnate, are not a means of transport so that some time continues until they reach the best commercial conditions, but are the final destination.
The explanation repeated again during the submission of the contract. When the media asked him if he was concerned that citizens and companies will have to pay billions of dollars for tariffs, Trump answered, saying that this would not happen, because “tariffs are paid by export of companies or foreign governments.” A statement that has nothing to do with reality in which payers are importing companies in the USA or citizens who buy the final product, but that Trump constantly repeated for decades. In his head, tariffs are a tax that the United States is accused of foreign countries, a kind of “tribute”, which all other countries must pay Washington for the privilege of trade with them. “US is a luxurious shopping center, I am a director, and everyone who wants to buy in this shopping center will have to pay a commission,” he repeated on Wednesday.
Starting with this base, Trump wants Maintain tariffs for all countries as a “source of income”. If tariffs implies for him that the rest of the countries send their money to Washington, why delete it? His illusion, as he said several times, is to finance the US budget with “money from other countries” and eliminate income tax. That the rest of the world is the one that covers the public expenses of the most influential country. Quasi is a feudal concept of the world, and this has nothing to do with the real functioning of these taxes, but this will marked all its commercial negotiations.
This situation means that for the EU the battle can be much more complicated. From the very beginning, this organization is based on the rules, so the idea of “not related an additional agreement” is that which causes fear and confusion in Brussels. The European commission announced on Thursday that she was already preparing a trial in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Actually Ursula von der Lane said he was already working with the idea that this measure will remain against the old continent and look for ways to mitigate the damage. “Although we try to achieve good results in the negotiation table, even through pressure measures and retaliation, some tariffs can be maintained over time.”
This happened from the compensation from Brussels with a proposal of more than 100,000 million euros to several imports of the United States, in which aircraft, cars, medical devices, chemicals, agricultural products … etc. In relation to a possible agreement between both parties, Trump ruled that “argue that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, that “, that”, what ” What ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”, what”, what ”.The European Union is definitely something important. He wants to reach an agreement as it is. You know, everyone wants to reach an agreement. Everyone wants to reach an agreement with the United States. And we achieve this. We will reach fair agreements. “
