As we approach a thousand days since the Russian invasion of Ukrainethe massive attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure this Sunday was quickly responded by West. The imminent arrival of Donald Trump at the White House already evoked an uncertain geopolitical scenario, but the authorization of Joe Biden The fact that kyiv can use long-range American missiles to attack Russian soil opens a new phase in the war.
Washington’s decision is a test with multiple possible readings. He New York Times underlines that the answer is linked to the presence of soldiers North Koreans on the Kursk front and rules out for the moment a plan of attack against major Russian cities.
Until now, the use of this weapon was prohibited for fear of escalation and Russian reprisals. This change of position reinforces support for Ukraine two months before Trump’s arrival at the White House, after the Republican promised to end the war if he won the elections.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in September that if the West gave the green light to attacks on targets on its territory, the Kremlin would interpret it as a “formal declaration of war.”
Actually, a high-ranking Russian senator made a threat this Sunday saying that the supply of long-range weapons “could lead to that Ukraine is totally in ruins overnight.”
The Russian official’s statement underscores the scale of the challenge facing the country and the possible repercussions that the supply of weapons from the United States could bring.
Third winter at war
On the other hand, Washington’s turn comes a few hours after Russia carried out the largest attack (120 missiles and 90 drones) against Ukrainian energy infrastructure since August 26 and after 73 days of unusual pause.
Last Wednesday, the first big snowfall in Ukraine, marking the arrival of what will be the third winter since the start of the conflict. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyaffirms that his country is better prepared than the previous two years to face the cold. However, the head of the UN delegation to Ukraine, Mattias Schmale, assessed that Kyiv lost 65% of its electricity production capacity in a statement released last Friday, before the attack.
Importing electricity and fuel from Europe eases the situation, but Schmale warns that the Russian goal is to cause a new mass displacement of people in and out of the country. All this at the time of the Russian advance to the east of the front and after the arrival of more than ten thousand soldiers. North Koreans expel Ukrainians from Kursk.
THE actual damage They are difficult to estimate and are rarely shared by the authorities. So far, power outages have been confirmed in the west (Volyn, Rivne and Lvyv) and the east (Dnipro and Zaporiya). Moreover, andState electricity operator Ukrenergo confirmed that all regions of the country would suffer supply cuts this Monday because of the attack.
The nature of the attack and the response of the Ukrainian defenses have a double reading. On the one hand, Zelensky claims that his anti-aircraft defenses They managed to destroy 104 of the 120 long-range missiles fired. On the other hand, the air forces failed to shoot down even half of Iran’s 90 drones. Shahid which caused multiple damages to Ukrainian infrastructure.
In August, the Financial Times pointed out that Kyiv, Moscow and Qatar They had begun negotiations to agree that there would be no more attacks on the energy sector from either side. Ukraine and Russia have denied the veracity of this information, and with this attack, Putin confirms that cold will continue to be another weapon in this war.
Russia’s timing of the attack and the United States’ response have a big story. geopolitics.
Donald Trump’s victory in the American elections could bring the end of the conflict closer (according to his own promises). Furthermore, Putin’s phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz represents an unprecedented rapprochement since the beginning of the invasion.
Following the dissolution of Germany’s coalition government of Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens earlier this month, the fall of Scholz It’s a matter of months. After early elections which will be held, in principle, in the first months of 2025, Ukraine could see the support of one of its most faithful partners dwindle.
THE critical voices With this gesture they came from inside and outside Ukraine after this attack. The Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andrei Sibigaissued a statement in which he mocked the German Chancellor’s call.
“This is war criminal Putin’s real response to those who recently met or called him,” the statement read.
The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tuskalso reacted after the attack with a publication on his account X.Points that “no one will stop Putin with phone calls” and that “telephone diplomacy cannot replace real support from the West.”
THE uncertainty Politics in Germany and the United States, combined with the onset of winter, paints a scenario that Putin intends to exploit in his favor. However, the Western reaction is escalating the conflict, with consequences that will depend on the type of attacks Ukraine is prepared to carry out on Russian territory.
For the moment, neither Biden, nor Zelensky, nor any voice from the Kremlin have confirmed the news announced this Sunday by The New York Times and the agency Reuters.
