Hezbollah expert Professor Amaziah Baram analyzed the consequences of recent pager bombings used by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
During a conversation with Maariv, he gave his assessment of the situation, revealing the internal debates in Israel and the strategic steps of the terrorist organization.
Baram noted that intensive talks have been taking place in Israel for several weeks between the Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense and the military command. They are discussing whether to move to a full-scale conflict with Lebanon or limit it to local escalations.
He asked what the difference is between a “complete” and a “significant” escalation:
“If we really intend to launch an offensive, then flying several hundred or even thousands of pagers, causing thousands of casualties, would be a great start. But if there is silence around my house in Haifa, on the top of Carmel, and I hear no explosions or airstrikes, then this is clearly not an escalation. Why was this opportunity missed then?”
The expert was also puzzled by the fact that this strike was not postponed to a more convenient time:
“Had we reserved this attack for a more opportune moment to cause maximum chaos in Hezbollah’s ranks and then strike in force, it would have been much more effective. We missed a unique opportunity that may not be repeated in the future.”
Speaking about the current state of Hezbollah, Baram stressed that this incident was a heavy blow and humiliation for the organization. However, he noted that Hezbollah leaders are unlikely to blame Israel directly, since, in his opinion, the problem with the pagers is not related to the direct actions of the Israelis:
“Nasrallah will likely avoid further escalation, understanding the risks.”
The professor concluded by suggesting that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will try to avoid a full-scale war, even if his allies can exert pressure.
“I think Nasrallah will prefer to limit himself to a war of attrition against Israel, while avoiding a full-scale conflict,” Baram concluded.
Earlier, Cursor shared details about massive explosions of Hezbollah militants’ pagers.
