Empty shelves, online retailers unable to meet demand and a wait-and-see government. Japan is facing a rice shortage that is alarming in a country that aims to cover 100% of its needs in this area, while its food self-sufficiency rate – in terms of the food supply – is still very low. calories – did not exceed 38% in 2023. Several brands, starting with Ito-Yokado supermarkets, have limited purchases to one package of rice per family.
The authorities, however, want to reassure everyone. “Rice has grown well in 2024. In some places, harvesting will start a week earlier than usual, so shipments should also start earlier.”explained Agriculture Minister Tetsushi Sakamoto. “We must be patient until the new rice is available”Ito Yokado stressed.
But the Japanese are even more worried because the powerful typhoon Shanshan, for which the authorities have issued the highest level of alert for winds and storm surge, reached the coasts of the island on Wednesday, August 28, coming from Kyushu (southwest) and could hover over Japan until September 4, threatening rice production.
A disrupted harvest could aggravate the crisis or even force the government to resort to imports or to draw on its emergency reserves, rich in 910,000 tons of rice and put into operation in 1993 after an abnormally cool summer affected rice cultivation.
Growth in demand
This year, shortages have been looming since spring. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, private sector stocks had fallen to 1.56 million tonnes in June, the lowest level since these statistics began to be compiled in 1999 and 20% less than in 2023. In July, the wholesale price reached 15,626 yen (97.10 euros) for 60 kg of rice, up 13% over the year.
At the same time, demand grew by 110,000 tonnes between June 2023 and June 2024 to 7.02 million tonnes. This was the first increase in ten years. The reason is the return of tourists after the pandemic. Japan welcomed 17.78 million foreign visitors in the first half of 2024, one million more than in the first half of 2019.
Another problem, inflation, is pushing the Japanese to rely more on rice, “cheap compared to other crops such as wheat,” says Hiroshi Itakura of the Ministry of Agriculture.
Rice cultivation is also subject to climate change. The year 1993 was too cold. 2023 was marked by “Considerably higher temperatures” seasonal norms, says the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The average was 1.76°C above normal, a record. The phenomenon was accompanied by a significant deficit of precipitation. However, rice exposed to high temperatures during the summer ripening period suffers a deterioration in quality.
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