After the operations of the Israeli secret services in the last 48 hours, leaving thousands of Hezbollah collaborators out of action thanks to the explosives placed in their “pagers” and their “walkie-talkies”, the question that arises today is that of the international community: the intentions of Netanyahu They are clearly offensive, in the face of an all-out attack… or simply dissuasive in the face of an enemy who was trying to gain the upper hand.
His position so far has been ambiguous about open war against Hezbollah and, by extension, probably, against Iran, the country that sponsors the terrorists.
If its government partners, particularly ultra-Orthodox leaders, Itamar Ben Gvir And Bezalel Smotrich have advocated from the beginning a warlike solution to the conflict on the border with the West Bank, the truth is that Netanyahu has always known how to operate in ambiguity.
He did not even want to make a decision when his Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallantand the former head of the armed forces, Benny GantzThey ordered him to carry out a severe counterattack against Iran, either directly or by using one of his guerrillas as an object of punishment. This ended with the resignation of Gantz, minister without portfolio, the practical dissolution of the War Cabinet and the beginning of public differences with Gallant, whose position seems to be hanging by a thread.
In this sense, Israel could face a kind of “now or never”. Hezbollah has not only lost a significant number of men, but the rest are cut off from each other. This would be very difficult to organize troops in case of frontal attack of the Israeli army. The feeling of weakness is also noticeable, as is the fear: what will explode next? To what extent has the Mossad become involved in the Shiite organization and what consequences can we expect? Will there be a new surprise this Thursday?
The theory says that you should always attack an enemy in a state of shockThe problem is that Netanyahu remains unpredictable and we never really know what his goals are: he claims that Israel is at war with Hamas and Hezbollah and he is probably right, but he does not dare to push this certainty to the ultimate consequences. He knows that if he attacks Lebanon now, he will probably achieve great political and military success. He also knows that the United States, or at least the Democratic administration, will never forgive him.
Contempt for the United States
This is precisely why Yoav Gallant himself said on Wednesday that They had not warned the White House beyond a simple message announcing a non-specific action.
Relations between Netanyahu and the Biden administration were very tense even before the October 7 massacre: Secretary of State, Anthony Blinkenis trying to balance loyalty to its long-time ally with the need to keep the Gaza conflict from escalating into an all-out war in the Middle East, without achieving results in either area.
As in Ukraine, this failure to take full responsibility for an unpopular decision and play to please everyone – Arab allies, progressive voters, the Jewish state, openly Zionist sympathizers – will leave us in an uncomfortable and inappropriate situation for a great power. Zelensky did not warn them about his operation in Kursk and now Netanyahu is ignoring them in his decision to attack Hezbollah in its own lair. Trump has had a story about this for a long time.
That said, the question is how far Netanyahu wants to push the fight. The fact that Israel allows itself to stretch the rope with the United States does not mean that it ceases to need their support. It has rejected – Hamas too – virtually everything Attempts at negotiations in Cairo and Doha. And there weren’t a few of them.
The Israeli Prime Minister openly protested against the Democratic administration and demanded more military aid and fewer councils. It has repeatedly claimed the independence of its decisions, both when it entered the Gaza Strip and during the various bombings of Gaza City, Khan Yunis and Rafah. Nor has it accepted mediation in the unilateral occupation of the Philadelphia Corridor.
Offensive or dissuasive?
The next logical step in this spiral of disagreements would be to attack Lebanon, seize the safe zone that is supposed to be in the hands of the international community, expel Hezbollah several kilometers into the interior and wait for Iran’s response. If this happens under the conditions announced by the ayatollahs’ regime, it will probably be the beginning of an all-out war. If this remains just words, success for Israel and Netanyahu will be total.
And, ultimately, the Iran’s Fragility has already been revealed before: Israel has succeeded in assassinating Ismail HaniyehHamas political leader, in his hotel room in Tehran, no more, no less. It is logical that the Iranian regime is also wondering what it can expect next, as the last active Hamas militants are surely wondering.
The blow to the Mossad table, after the unforgivable failure that led to the October 7 massacre, puts everyone on the defensive. Israel has seized the initiative in one fell swoop.
For the moment, Gallant has already indicated that the conflict has entered “a new phase” and announced that there is already Troops head north“The center of gravity is shifting north. We are diverting forces, resources and energy north,” he said Wednesday during a visit to an Israeli air force base, 40 kilometers from the border with Lebanon.
In a similar vein, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi held a meeting with the head of the Northern Command and approved “the attack and defense plans” in the north. “We have many capabilities that we have not yet activated,” he said.
Now you can also use this initiative to strengthen your own security. The alternative to an all-out offensive against Lebanon would be to take advantage of the enemy’s inability to strengthen defenses and order in the occupied territories of the West Bank, which currently constitute a kingdom of lawlessness between the attacks of Hezbollah, those of the ultra-Orthodox guerrillas, the incapacity of the Palestinian Authority and the inaction of the government of Tel Aviv, which has won these are serious reprimands from the UN and Washington.
If Iran sticks to a negotiation that includes a commitment from Hamas to return the hostages and a commitment from Hezbollah to cease its constant bombing, Netanyahu might be able to stop the momentum of his hawks.
The problem with these types of agreements is that they always come with a deep pre-distrust: Israel senses that as soon as Hamas and Hezbollah are active again, they will attack again. That is its raison d’être. For its part, Iran knows that Israel will continue to allow illegal settlements and turn a blind eye to excesses. In the world we knew, the United States and the Arab community would be able to convince both sides to at least reach a truce. The problem is that the world we knew probably no longer exists.
