Are Belarusian troops preparing to attack Ukraine or is it a fool’s game? On Sunday, August 25, kyiv accused Belarus, a neighboring country and close ally of Russia, of “massage” troops on its border. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry announced that it had detected that the country “concentrates a significant number of soldiers (…) in the Gomel region, near the northern border of Ukraine, under cover of maneuvers [militaires] ».
“We call on Belarusian officials not to make a tragic mistake under pressure from Moscow, and urge their armed forces to stop their hostile actions and withdraw forces from the Ukrainian border to a distance greater than the Belarusian remote firing systems can reach.”Ukrainian diplomacy added in a press release. kyiv claims to have detected the presence of Wagner militia fighters, of whom between 100 and 200 men – according to estimates – remained in Belarus after the failure of the rebellion in Russia of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin (who died in August 2023 in the crash of his plane).
In case of border violation, “All troop concentrations, military facilities and supply routes in Belarus will become legitimate targets for the Ukrainian armed forces”warn the authorities. When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, its troops left Belarus. Even today, the territory serves as a rear logistical base for Moscow, although the number of its soldiers deployed there has been reduced to about 2,000 men.
“About 1,100 soldiers”
However, the scale of the military buildup near the Ukrainian border appears to be very modest. The Belarusian Hajun Project monitoring group, spearheaded by exiled Belarusian journalist Anton Motolko and focused on observing military activities, assesses the number of Belarusian soldiers present in “around 1,100”. “This number of forces redeployed to the border does not pose a threat to Ukraine”says the expert, who specifies that “The troops are located at a depth of up to 50 kilometers from the border”. According to the Belarusian Hajun project, “The escalation of the situation on the border is aimed at informational and political objectives rather than military ones”.
An analysis shared by Pavel Slunkin, a former Belarusian diplomat in exile. “I don’t think the Belarusian army will invade Ukraine.said. It’s more of an information war than a real troop movement. » The threat of an attack seems all the weaker since the Belarusian army, which is not directly involved in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is small and inexperienced.
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