The parliamentary labyrinth that the Executive is facing revives the possibility of a new budget extension – the second in a row – that would force Moncloa to return to the ceiling on non-financial spending in force since 2023, set at 173,065 million euros, 22,288 million less than proposed for 2025 and which was approved by the Council of Ministers on July 16. The political blow would be obvious, but the maneuver would once again be linked to the health of the public accounts in a year in which Brussels will begin to closely examine the drift in spending in each State.
The First Vice President, María Jesús Montero, designed more than a month ago an ambitious fiscal strategy that raises the budget spending ceiling to 195.353 million euros – without counting on European funds – and in which she promises to assume alone the adjustment of 0.8%. GDP necessary to respect the deficit trajectory committed with the European Commission until 2027. However, a new extension would reduce expectations in terms of spending, giving the government greater room to assume commitments such as the salary increase agreed with civil servants, the increase in the Defense budget, the spending of 10 billion dollars that NATO demands from Spain, or the obligations derived from the royal decrees projected for next 2025.
Despite the savings, the Treasury will try to promote new accounts until the last moment. Sources from the ministry led by Montero insist that they continue working with the aim of presenting the draft budget for 2025 “so that it enters into force on time.” In fact, Moncloa intends to submit the bill to Congress in a few weeks, along with the spending cap that already failed in July“We are aware of our responsibility, that of presenting accounts that we will transmit to Congress,” said the spokesperson of the Executive, Pilar Alegría, on Tuesday, transferring the pressure to the rest of the formations, “from there, the responsibility of the different political groups,” he added.
On the other side of the government table, Sumar is confident in the minister’s ability to rebuild the ranks among the groups in the investiture bloc. “In general, increasing budgets is always bad news, especially when you want to develop transformative policies for your country. In any case, it seems to me that we are very far from that perspective at the moment,” said yesterday the secretary general of the parliamentary group, Txema Guijarro, who tried to seduce the rest of the parties by insisting that the norm could be the best opportunity to promote their demands.
The end of the investiture block
Despite this, Sánchez has still not managed to muster the support needed to make his way through the Congress of Deputies. The president failed to repair his relations with Junts this summer, after Carles Puigdemont’s team unexpectedly lowered the spending ceiling last July in the Lower House. Added to this is ERC’s great unease with the PSOE. The party considers that Sánchez waited until he had blocked Salvador Illa’s investiture to water down the single financing agreement for Catalonia, distancing it from the model of tax quotas enjoyed by the Basque Country or the Navarrese agreement.
Today, the socialist He doesn’t even have the support of Podemos.. For months, Ione Belarra’s supporters have considered the “progressive legislature” dead. “We should first see if the Socialist Party has the will to present budgets, because I believe that, given the death of Parliament, the PSOE is in an attitude of absolute trans trans“I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they didn’t present budgets,” anticipated last Monday the secretary of the Organization and spokesperson of Podemos, Pablo Fernández. The party has already warned Pedro Sánchez that I would not support accounts that envisage an increase in defence budget spending.consequence of the escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
ERC and Junts will mark the treatment
The final stretch of 2024 will be decisive. In a few days, Montero will resume contact with all the parliamentary groups to the left of the Popular Party, with the intention of approving the spending ceiling on which to build future budgets, but the wait will be long. On the calendar, two dates will be decisive. At the end of October, Junts will hold a congress during which the party will redefine its strategy.. At this meeting, Carles Puigdemont’s men will outline their political tactics and define their positions. In the meantime, the line is clear. The group led by Míriam Nogeras has continued to distance itself from the investiture bloc since its vote against the vote on the limitation of expenses. Furthermore, last Tuesday, Junts allied itself with the PP and Vox to urge Sánchez and Montero to appear at the headquarters of Parliament to explain the migration crisis and the “unique” financing agreement for Catalonia that paved the way for the election of Illa as president of the Generalitat. A drift that they criticized yesterday from the ranks of Sumar. “It goes against their own interests,” warned the party’s deputy, Lander Martínez, in an interview with Radio Euskadi. Sánchez’s partners in the executive have asked the postconvergent “reinventing himself” after being excluded from government.
Added to this is the extraordinary conclave of the ERC scheduled – in principle – for November 30, and during which the activists will have to choose between Oriol Junqueras and – possibly – the current council led by Marta Rovira. The former president of the pro-independence party, who will present his candidacy on September 21, has the support of former councilor Raul Romeva and MEP Diana Riba.
