The arrival of Donald Trump at the White House has had a calming effect on the markets, as evidenced by the recent increases in North American stock markets. But after this first effect, based on his policy of tax cuts and deregulation of certain sectors, analysts begin to question the scope of his measures, knowing that many of them have an inflationary character, such as imposition of customs duties on Chinese products. products.
The nominations currently known for his future government are also being scrutinized to try to guess what the new president’s next steps will be. And at DWS, one of the largest European asset managers in terms of asset volume, it is clear that “Trump should be taken seriously, but not literally”, according to what he writes on social media, explained David Bianco, head of investments. for the manager’s Americas region during the outlook presentation. In this sense, the manager is betting on sectors such as health, thanks to the innovation capacity of North American companies, utilities and the financial sector.
Concerning European stocks, they maintain their preference for small caps, which could benefit from an asset reallocation environment from global investors, while in the banking sector they remain positive.
Concerning bond assets, the German manager favors Investment Grade corporate bonds, and in particular senior bank debt, in a context where investors have integrated a scenario of low growth but financial stability.
On the Chinese side, the firm lowers the level of customs duties that Trump could impose from 60% to 35%, which could be implemented from the second half of the year. Although its effect on the Chinese economy would be more limited given the regional integration it has achieved.
