lThe question, for several days, has returned like a cliché: will there be a government at Christmas? And, beyond that, will there be a budget? When Prime Minister Michel Barnier will decide to activate article 49.3 of the Constitution to approve the finance bill without a vote: a hypothesis ” likely “declared -, will the opposition deputies, from the left and the extreme right, join their voices to overthrow him?
At a mathematical level, the equation is unstoppable: if the 124 deputies of the National Rally (RN) – 140 with the elected representatives of Eric Ciotti – support a motion presented by the New Popular Front (192 deputies), as they already did in the Summer 2023, when pension reform is up for review, the government will be overthrown. “It will fall between December 15 and 21”predicted on Sunday, November 17 on France 3 by the “rebel” Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who dreams of early presidential elections, in a context of institutional and political chaos.
Since the prosecution requested, on Wednesday, November 13, a sentence of disqualification with immediate execution against Marine Le Pen, tried during the trial against the assistants of the MEPs of her party, the tone has hardened in the RN, which had given a prior declaration form. Blessing to the former Brexit negotiator during his appointment.
When they learned, on Friday night, November 15, that the former presidential candidate had been invited to the TF1 program “8 pm,” A certain excitement spread through the ministerial offices, which believed that he was going to announce his intention to censure the government. She didn’t do anything about it. But he considered that this accusation “disgusting” was equivalent to asking “political death”rediscovering the old anti-system reflexes of his party, far from its desire for normalization and respectability.
Beyond the tactic (lighting a political backfire to make her legal setbacks forgotten), Marine Le Pen must appease the frustration of her elected officials, who cannot boast of any budgetary victory, when the leader of the deputies of the Republican party (Les ) (LR, right-wing republican group), Laurent Wauquiez, was able to boast of having obtained an alleged increase in pensions. The RN deputies feel little considered by a Prime Minister who rejected their amendments, far from the considerations of the summer, when Michel Barnier rushed to call Marine Le Pen to tell her that her party should not be excluded from the republican arch, contrary to what the Minister of Economy, Antoine Armand, had just said.
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