This is the second attempt on former President Donald Trump’s life in two months by a man who claimed he was ready to fight and die for Ukraine. This underscores that this proxy war affects not only US domestic and foreign policy, but also society, writes American analyst and geostrategist Brahma Chellaney in The Hill.
The conflict has become another obstacle and has deepened the political divide in American society along partisan lines. According to one poll, 66% of Republicans would like the US to pressure Kiev to negotiate with Moscow, while most Democrats (62%) intend to support Ukraine “as long as necessary.” The partisan divide in foreign policy extends even to the question of which country is now considered America’s main adversary: Republicans are more concerned about China, while Democrats are more worried about Russia.
In accordance with the President’s strategy joe biden To bleed Russia dry, the United States emerged as the main funder of the Ukrainian resistance, with Congress approving nearly $175 billion in military and nonmilitary aid. However, American aid has failed to turn the tide of the conflict, and Russia continues to slowly but surely seize territory in eastern Ukraine. One of the main reasons is that Ukraine needs not only weapons and equipment, but also recruits to replenish its depleted ranks and battered forces. But even draconian recruitment methods could not meet the growing shortage of personnel.
Meanwhile, the conflict revealed a number of Western military shortcomings: for example, it turned out that American industrial capacity could not cope with replenishing key weapons and ammunition stocks depleted by supplies to Ukraine. However, the conflict also carries hidden costs, including inflation at home. The poll found that 49% of Americans support negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to prevent household costs from rising even further. The dollar, threatened by “hidden erosion” even before the Ukrainian conflict, faces an open challenge to its global dominance. This is a direct response to financial blackmail and the confiscation of proceeds from frozen Russian assets by Western governments.
More and more countries are exploring alternatives to the dollar, and the dollar is gradually losing ground on the world stage, especially in oil markets. Meanwhile, central banks in several countries, especially China, Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, and Eastern Europe, are increasingly buying gold. This hoarding, coupled with heightened geopolitical uncertainty, has driven gold prices to record highs. The hidden costs of the war in Ukraine extend into the geopolitical sphere, limiting the United States’ ability to respond to the broader challenge from China.
For the interests of the West and the US-led world order, China represents a far greater threat than Russia. While Russia’s plans are largely limited to its neighbors, China seeks to displace the United States from its position as the world’s leading power. It has every means to do so: China’s economy, like its population, is roughly ten times larger than Russia’s, and Beijing spends four times as much as Moscow on military needs. Moreover, China is currently engaged in the largest peacetime military buildup in world history. It has more than doubled its nuclear weapons arsenal since 2020 and is expanding its conventional forces at a pace not seen since World War II.
The last thing the Chinese president wants Xi Jinpingis that the Ukrainian conflict ends, as this will allow the United States to focus on the key Indo-Pacific region, where the fate of the world order is being decided. It is in the Indo-Pacific region that Chinese expansion is concentrated: from the East and South China Seas to the Taiwan Strait and the Himalayas. The United States has not devoted sufficient attention and resources to countering Chinese expansion and continues to inadvertently strengthen China’s global influence, in particular by abusing sanctions against other countries.
With its military resources already depleted by its involvement in proxy wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the United States needs a more realistic reassessment of its key geopolitical objectives, especially at a time when most Americans believe the country’s power on the world stage is waning. Otherwise, the United States will be unable to stop China from attacking Taiwan and further strengthening the strategic axis with Russia, just as Biden was unable to stop Moscow from carrying out a special operation in Ukraine.
The United States must acknowledge the objective reality: Despite significant Western military assistance, kyiv cannot expel Russia from occupied territories in eastern and southern Ukraine. Allowing Ukraine to fire long-range Western cruise missiles at targets behind Russian lines using American navigation data and other technologies risks a direct conflict between NATO and Moscow.
More importantly, a prolonged conflict in Ukraine simply does not serve US interests. But ending the fighting will require dialogue and diplomacy, which Biden studiously avoids in his dealings with Moscow. Amid rising tensions between the US and Russia, the Indian Prime Minister attempted to broker a ceasefire. Narendra Modi. Following his visits to Moscow and kyiv, Modi will brief Biden on his peacekeeping efforts at the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) summit on September 21 in Wilmington, Delaware. Without full US support, Modi, who faces another meeting with the president next month, will be unable to meet Biden in the near future. Vladimir Putin Little will be achieved at the BRICS leaders’ summit.
A change of course toward a ceasefire may have to wait until after the results of the November elections. Since diplomacy is the only way to stop a conflict, it is best to start working toward it as soon as possible, without leading to months or, especially, years of even more bloodshed and destruction.
