Iran could be on the verge of significant change if rumors about Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s deteriorating health turn out to be true. Despite reports that he ordered Hezbollah terrorists to accept a ceasefire with Israel, his long absence from public view since November 7 raises many questions. Experts believe Khamenei’s deteriorating health could be the reason why the Council of Wise Men already chose a successor in September.
“Details” writes about this.
Middle East experts say a change of leadership in Iran could become the most important event for the country in the 21st century. The current supreme leader, who took command of the Islamic Republic 35 years ago after the death of Ruhollah Khomeini, has changed many key aspects of his policy. In particular, Iran began to actively cooperate with Russia and China, and in the 1990s the country even attracted Western investments. However, international sanctions in the 2010s radically changed the state’s economic model, making China Iran’s main economic partner. According to experts, these changes occurred against the will of the Iranian authorities.
If Khamenei’s departure occurs, it will not only be the end of an era, but also the beginning of a difficult period for the government, which is going through a serious crisis of legitimacy. It is estimated that around 70% of the country’s population is critical of the current regime. The new supposed leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is a conservative figure with influence in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij militia. However, he is not a public figure and, according to analysts, is unlikely to initiate liberal reforms.
The country’s economic situation remains difficult, but experts believe it is too early to talk about collapse. The inflation rate is around 40%, but the economy shows slight growth and the budget’s dependence on oil revenues has decreased to 20-30%. Iran also follows a strategy of fighting “cheap” wars, relying on missiles and drones to minimize military costs.
The regime’s main problem lies in social policies that maintain mass loyalty through subsidies for gasoline, electricity, and food. Cutting these subsidies could provoke mass protests, as happened in 2019. At the same time, corruption in the country remains one of the main threats to the authorities: high-ranking officials are often unwilling to tolerate the existing system.
A change of leadership in Iran could lead to a “power battle” between various elites, since the current regime does not have a strong tradition of continuity. International actors, including Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States, are likely to intervene in this process. Although radicals within Iran have strengthened their positions, there is hope that under current conditions more pragmatic politicians may come to power.
Iranian society, according to analysts, is less and less supportive of slogans directed against Israel and the United States. Citizens are more concerned about internal problems, such as rising prices and social instability. Some experts believe that abandoning an aggressive foreign policy may be a way to stabilize the regime. However, it is still unclear whether the possible change of leader will boost reforms or lead to further tightening of the screws.
Previously, Kursor wrote about why Iran refused to buy air defense systems from Russia.
Iran stopped purchasing Russian air defense systems after they failed during an Israeli attack.
