NEWSru.co.il continues to publish reviews on the political situation in Israel written by journalist Gabi Wolfson.
They say that a prudent person will never find himself in a situation that a smart person can get out of. It will take more than a day until it becomes clear who of the Galant-Saar couple was smart this week and who was prudent. If the process of changing the defence minister remains at the “almost” level, Gideon Saar It will be very difficult to explain why he “fell” so confidently on the Prime Minister’s promises. If the process is completed successfully, Yoav Galant He will have to explain how he continued to cooperate with Netanyahu despite the latter’s publicly announced intention to fire him. Benjamin Netanyahu kept all his cards close to his chest. It is extremely difficult to overlook him in political combinations.
Events in Israel are developing at such speed that the scandal surrounding Yulia Edelsteina and the activists of the “Creating an Alternative” movement seem like a distant past. Edelstein himself has not forgotten the events that took place near his home.
Meanwhile, the Arab parties have their own dramas and some very unexpected ones.
Sarre, Galant and Hezbollah pagers
Everything seemed coherent. After many weeks of doubts and hesitations, the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu The final decision was reached (as it seemed on the evening of 16 September) to dismiss Yoav Galant and appoint Gideon Saar as Minister of Defence in his place. Everything seemed so coordinated that the opposition and its media supporters launched the expected attack on the Saar.
The process was supposed to be completed on the evening of September 23, when Benjamin Netanyahu, if nothing extraordinary happens, will attend the UN General Assembly session in New York. Sending a letter of resignation to Galant 48 hours before it takes effect, voting on Saar’s candidacy at a government meeting and swearing him in at an extraordinary Knesset meeting – this is how the upcoming events looked like.
However, the process failed, and the political system is not convinced that it was the special services of an unknown country that disrupted it by setting off thousands of Hezbollah terrorist pagers on September 17. There are those who do not rule out that the publications about Galant’s impending resignation were just a trial balloon intended to test the waters, gauge the degree of objections and protests, and only then make decisions. As a last resort, Netanyahu can always find a reason, or rather a pretext, to freeze the process. The operation in Lebanon gave him that reason.
There were many objections, and not only in the opposition. Not everyone in the Likud is enthusiastic about the change of defense minister. It is no coincidence that a few hours before this entire political process was frozen, anonymous messages arrived on the phones of many Likud activists asking them not to allow Saar to join the government and, more importantly, not to allow him to join the Likud. Many in the ruling party fear that the return of Saar and Elkin to the ranks of the Likud will create additional competition there in the upcoming primaries.
However, this is just an assumption. It is possible that in this case, as is often the case, we are talking about a coincidence and not a “conspiracy.” Netanyahu is interested in returning Sa’ar to the government. If the reports that Yamin Mamlakhti promises stability to the coalition in the form of support for the state budget, on the one hand, and guarantees of support for a possible agreement with Hamas, on the other, are true, it is much more profitable for Netanyahu to bring Sa’ar closer to himself than to play, gaining additional points in the “tournament” of political combiners. An indirect confirmation of the seriousness of the prime minister’s intentions is the fact that in recent days Netanyahu has informed Sa’ar about developments in the defense sphere. There are those who call the last few days the de facto assumption of power by Sa’ar. One can imagine how the current Minister of Defense, Yoav Galant, felt about this.
At the moment, no one knows when the defense secretary will be replaced. On September 19, journalist Ben Caspit reported, citing Netanyahu’s close aides, that in recent days Galant had addressed Netanyahu, apologized, admitted some of his mistakes and suggested that the prime minister start the relationship from scratch. According to witnesses of this scene, Netanyahu muttered something unintelligible in response. This reaction probably more accurately reflects his true attitude to a possible change of defense ministers.
The ultra-Orthodox are waiting impatiently
One of the circumstances that catalyzed the negotiations between Netanyahu and Sa’ar was the pressure from the ultra-Orthodox parties. (Ultra-Orthodox leaders – ed.) Goldknopf and Gafni do not hide their discontent with the progress of the adoption of the law on compulsory military service, as well as with the solution to the problem of financing daycare for the children of yeshiva students. or rather, no progress. In recent weeks, this discontent has manifested itself in more than just words. In Netanyahu’s office, they observed, not without nervousness, how friendly and almost like a family they became. Benny Gantz at my daughter’s wedding Moti Babcheka – one of the most famous officials in ultra-Orthodox circles. This does not mean that the ultra-Orthodox will rush to destroy Netanyahu’s government tomorrow, it only means that they have shown that they have other options.
“The world does not begin or end with Netanyahu. He should remember this.” – an advisor to one of the Ya’adut HaTorah MKs told me.
Continued pressure from ultra-Orthodox parties could speed up the process of replacing Galant with Saar. This week there were reports that Ze’ev Elkin negotiated with the heads of the ultra-Orthodox parties on the agreed text of the law on compulsory military service. Yamin Mamlakhti categorically denied these claims and said that they continue to push for a law to be adopted that would meet the needs of the army. The wording is noticeably different from that expressed by Yoav Galant. The current Minister of Defense has repeatedly said that the law he deems necessary to pass must be acceptable not only to the coalition, but also to the opposition. Perhaps, as part of attempts to start relations with Benjamin Netanyahu from a “clean slate,” Galant will change his position on this issue.
Opposition: easy prey called Saar
There was nothing easier for opposition MPs than to attack Gideon Saar, leader of the opposition. Yair Lapid The opposition organized an “exposure” of Gideon Saar’s statements about Benjamin Netanyahu on its microblog. In fact, Saar spoke so much and so convincingly about his rejection of the politics and political culture imposed by the Prime Minister that with a single click one could find many colorful quotes. The main task of the opposition was to prove, or rather, convince the Israelis that the replacement of the Defense Minister pursues one goal: the release of the ultra-Orthodox from service in the IDF. It is not a particularly difficult task, especially considering that the issue of burden sharing after almost a year of war is more pressing than ever.
And at the same time, in this quest for an easy victory, it is very important not to overdo it. Saar joins (if he joins) the coalition when the country is in a state of war, and a war that is not developing as the Israelis would like. There may be support for a change of defense minister. The attempt by some MKs, who until recently wore general’s suspenders, to “condemn” Saar for lack of military experience could backfire. Knesset member Gadi Eisenkot From 2015 to 2019, he served as the IDF Chief of Staff. In other words, he led the military establishment during the formation of Hamas’s military potential. There are those who will say that Eisenkot does not demonstrate the direct link between military merit and strategic thinking that is required of a defense minister.
National Unity Government initiated by Mansour Abbas
head of the RAAM Mansour Abbas made a statement this week that surprised many. At a conference in the Haaretz newspaper, Abbas proposed that the Yesh Atid and Mahane Mamlahti parties initiate the creation of a national unity government, which will continue to function until the end of the Knesset term in 2026. When such an initiative comes from centrist parties, it is not surprising. Abbas does not belong to that party. His statement, apparently, was dictated by two rational and political motives. Abbas is fighting against the Hadash-Taal bloc, as well as against the Balad party, which plans to return to the Knesset. The war has caused additional stratification in Arab society and the RAAM leader is obviously trying to consolidate his voters. He also believes that polls show that the parties in the current coalition are gaining popularity. Abbas listens to statements from opposition colleagues, including their leader Yair Lapid. They clearly state that RAAM will not be the 61st vote in their coalition. There is no need to rush to the RAAM polling stations.
Edelstein and the protests
Head of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Yuli Edelstein known as a person who rarely allows himself to make harsh statements. However, this week he spoke very harshly about those who demonstrated near his home.
Edelstein found herself at the epicenter of a scandal after she refused to express solidarity with activists from the “Building an Alternative” movement, who placed leaflets in the synagogue where Edelstein prays, demanding the release of the hostages. It is worth noting that the “Building an Alternative” organization was created in 2020, when there was no hostage problem yet. Its activists participated in the fight against legal reform and are now taking part in protests demanding an agreement with Hamas. After the women distributed the leaflets, a complaint was filed with the police, who were overzealous and detained the women. Edelstein refused to condemn the arrest.
“I understand that those who filed the complaint must have limits”; – said.
One can argue about Edelstein’s statement, but even before that, activists showed him “special attention.” On Shabbat morning, dozens of protesters waited outside his home and “escorted” him to the synagogue, shouting “shame.”
At a meeting of the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, Edelstein accused protesters of “turning hostages into bargaining chips in a fight that has nothing to do with the hostages.”
“I have no right to forgive the people I have seen near my home for four years. They are the same people, they just change their shirts. They protest and then have picnics, drink beer and sing songs.” Edelstein added.
The heated debate about this incident, or rather about Yuli Edelstein’s personality and his activities, did not bypass social networks. There everything was as usual: harsh and sometimes rude. “There was no need to bring him up,” wrote someone who wrote about Edelstein’s “service” in a Soviet prison for Zionist activities. “Apparently I did not sit in vain,” wrote someone else. Such are the “discussions” on social networks.
