With the equator of the decade in reticlethe time has come to take stock and look back over a five-year period which brought record stock markets, solid economic growth (+30% since the start of the decade) and historic technological advances. However, this movement has also been accompanied by a global pandemic, various geopolitical conflicts and global social challenges.
The decade is only halfway there, which begs the question: what’s next? UBS raised this issue during its latest media roundtable, titled UBS upcoming year 2025 where they gave their expert opinions on the key events that will shape the next stage of the ‘Roaring Twenties’.
Marc Haefele The investment director of the Swiss company explains in this sense that in the first stages of the second part of this decade the trend observed so far will continue and that in 2025 we will therefore be able to witness a “great year for the title”. markets.”
“Negotiations with business partners or internal legal challenges could mitigate its scope and impact, but tax cuts and deregulation could support a more positive market discourse,” explains the company manager who assures that the S&P 500 could reach the 6,600 points by the end of 2025or just over 10% from current levels, thanks to strong US growth, falling interest rates and advances in AI.
In this sense, Themis Themistocleia The company’s Chief Investment Officer EMEA focused on the expected growth for Europe’s economies, which in 2025 will be around 0.7/0.8 for the region’s most powerful countries, such as Germany, France and Italy, and which will be greater in peripheral areas such as Spain Portugal or Greece, where the GDP growth rate will exceed the 2% and in some cases it can reach 3% in the best case.
Of course, whether or not these goals are achieved will largely depend on the challenges the European region faces in the coming months, such as the hypothetical shock for Germany, which could mean aggressive implementation of tariffs by the new Trump administration on the German country’s exports, or politically, the elections the country faces in 2025.
In this context, and in the absence of fast-growing companies like those in the United States, investors are often willing to diversify and focus on Wall Street companies. However, looking ahead to next year, UBS sees an opportunity in real state European. “The outlook for residential and commercial real estate investments is promising. With limited supply and growing demand, there are opportunities in sectors such as logistics, data centers and multi-family housing,” they explain.
In the commodities sector, falling interest rates, persistent geopolitical risks and concerns about US government debt are expected continue to support gold in 2025. “There are also long-term opportunities in copper and other transition metals such as aluminum or lithium, as demand increases alongside growing investments in energy production, storage and transmission electric,” he explains. Marc Andersen Co-head of global asset allocation.
“US growth will be supported by deregulation and improved business confidence, which will more than offset the impact of selective tariffs on major Chinese and European imports,” they explain from the entity while adding that “trade and geopolitical negotiations will add volatility to European and European markets.” Chinese markets.”
Among the directions proposed by UBS for next year are also less ambitious tax plans in the United States, fall in inflation and rapprochement of objectives and bond yields have fallen slightly, in part due to central bank decisions that have systematically reduced interest rates toward a neutral level.
“The dollar is likely to be caught between short-term positive factors, such as the rigidity of the US labor market and tariffs, and long-term negative factors, such as overvaluation,” Anderson notes of the currency American. “Investors should take advantage of periods of strength to reduce their exposure to the dollar,” he says..
