In the past week, information spread that Russia had supplied Armenia with new Smerch-type missiles, which was soon confirmed by the official in Yerevan. Gagik Melkonyan, a member of the Armenian parliament’s defense and security affairs committee, said that Russia presented the new weapon to Yerevan based on the previously signed agreement. The chairman of the same committee, Andranik Kocheryan, stated that all orders placed so far have started to be executed steadily. What is the intention behind the resumption of arms supplies to Armenia by Russia?
“Caspian” newspaper article on the subject.
Friendly “hostility”
The resumption of arms sales to Armenia is not the first and only fact that relations between the two countries are tense on the surface and ambiguous on the ground. Over the past two years, trade turnover between Moscow and Yerevan has shown fantastic growth indicators. According to the latest statistics, this figure is around eight billion dollars. This means an increase of almost 60 percent compared to last year. If we believe the forecasts, the statistics will reach 14 billion by the end of this year.
Of course, both sides are happy about this development. But the most interesting thing is that all this is happening before the eyes of the West, which is waging a life-or-death war against Russia in Ukraine. The reasons for this abnormal increase in trade turnover are known and hotly discussed. A more important aspect of the problem is that the resumption of arms sales by Russia to Armenia is a “drop in the ocean” compared to the total sales volume. It turns out that the arming of Armenia is carried out not only by restoring arms supplies, but also with a huge amount of money from trade with Russia. With these funds, Pashinyan’s government acquires long-range lethal weapons from France and India. That is, Moscow is the cause of the strengthening of revanchist tendencies in Yerevan in both cases.
Public “fight”
Surprisingly enough, against the backdrop of growing economic cooperation, officials of the countries are engaged in public “fights.” Mutual skirmishes continue at the level of the MFA, thinking minds in Russia accuse Yerevan of anti-caliphate, turning its back on 200 years of common history and selling Russia, the savior of the Armenian people, to the West. On the contrary, the forces gathered in Yerevan “under the wing” of the West say that Russia is to blame for the historical tragedies of the Armenian people and declare that Moscow has no right to ensure the security of the Zangezur corridor according to the requirements of the November 10 agreement. After the news of the resumption of arms sales became public, the conclusion we can draw is: either there is an agreement between the parties to create a background of tension and distract attention from the cooperation that is strengthening day by day, or Moscow is desperate not to lose Yerevan completely, including the supply of military-oriented products, one of the steps taken in this direction.
Interdependence
This mechanism operating between the two countries has created favorable conditions for Armenia to receive further dividends from Russia. Two of Prime Minister Pashinyan’s three foreign policy statements have been devoted to indirect criticism of Moscow or the lukewarmness of the military bloc alliance controlled by the main economic partner. Speaking at the Second Armenian World Summit three days ago, Nikol did not even hesitate to call the Collective Security Treaty Organization the biggest threat to Armenia’s security. Two days earlier, Armenian media published information that a group of people trained in Russia were preparing to carry out a coup in Armenia and were exposed.
It seems that Pashinyan used at least two factors as blackmail and took the line of further “separation” from Russia. If the first factor is to criticize Moscow and its satellite institutions and bow to the West, the second factor is to perform the transit function for Russia, which is the main reason for the abnormal increase in trade turnover. Simply put, the import of products used in the manufacture of weapons used by Russia in the war with Ukraine through Armenia has made Moscow dependent on Yerevan. Otherwise, it would be possible to regulate Pashinyan’s arms opening in a very simple way – by increasing the price of gas. How is it possible to punish when necessary the “independent state” of occupied Abkhazia, which is the legal territory of Georgia, but not Armenia?
“Minsk Group”-2?
The resumption of arms exports to Armenia by Russia can actually be considered a violation of the Minsk Group. Is this step not a step towards restoring the so-called mediation mission, which was thrown into the archives of history after the 44-day war in 2020? The collective West, in the form of the United States and France, creates obstacles to achieving final peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan by all means. On the other hand, Russia’s well-known step actually facilitates the re-emergence of the Minsk Group.
The Minsk Group was for many years the main guarantor of the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands. During this period, we have observed that the world’s darling is in every way opposing the restoration of historical justice in Azerbaijan for the sake of Armenia. There are several explanations for this injustice: for example, an anti-Turkish or Christian club. If we take into account the fact that Muslim Iran’s opposition to the Zangezur Corridor is accepted in the West and the fact that the parties act as situational allies, we can conclude that this mechanism has started again. However, there are two important points to comment on separately: the fact that the corridor is under Russian control, according to paragraph 9 of the November 10 communiqué, and the alliance agreement signed between Russia and Azerbaijan in February 2022, days before the Ukrainian invasion. war. It turns out that only Azerbaijan is working for the implementation of paragraph 9 and is resisting pressure from almost the entire world. Do we need it in light of Russia’s resumption of arms sales to Armenia?
