Military analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that Vladimir Putin’s statements on “red lines” show inconsistency, which calls into question his readiness for real escalation.
In his last speech on November 21, the Russian leader again emphasized threats to the West, but analysts say this rhetoric remains largely empty words.
The Kremlin’s recent statements have been directed at countries that supply Ukraine with long-range weapons capable of attacking “Russian territory.” However, as experts recall, Ukrainian forces have a long history of attacking territories that Russia has illegally claimed as its own, including Crimea, which was annexed in 2014. Since April 2023, Ukraine has regularly used American ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles British to attack these regions.
ISW analysts highlight that the Kremlin’s rhetoric on “red lines” has lost its effectiveness over time, as its content constantly changes. Russia has repeatedly threatened to retaliate in the event of further military assistance to Ukraine from the West, but each time has refused to implement these threats.
Earlier, Putin promised retaliation for the supply of artillery rockets, tanks and aircraft to kyiv, as well as the possibility of long-range strikes against Russia. However, according to experts, these threats turned out to be a hoax, as the West, ignoring Moscow’s statements, continued to support Ukraine.
At the same time, the situation on the front remains dynamic. Ukrainian troops advanced north from Vugledar, while Russian forces advanced on several fronts, including areas southeast of Sudzha in the Kursk Region, northwest of Kremennaya and near Velikaya Novoselka.
Previously, “Kursor” wrote about the signal Putin sent to Trump by attacking Ukraine with an Oreshnik missile.
The expert believes that Putin seeks to influence Donald Trump’s future decisions.
