Moscow has threatened to respond to the decision by the United States and the United Kingdom to authorize the use of its missiles in attacks inside Russian territory. And he warned that he was weighing all options. Earlier this week, the Kremlin announced a formal change to its nuclear doctrine, to specifically provide for a possible nuclear response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil facilitated by NATO members. What could Vladimir Putin’s response be?
For now, Putin has confirmed that his first step in his response has been to test a hypersonic ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. “In response to the use of American and British long-range weapons, on November 21 of this year, the Russian armed forces launched a combined attack on one of the facilities of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex” with “the one of the most recent systems. of Russian medium-range missiles”, called Oreshnik.
“Whether it’s an intercontinental ballistic missile or an intermediate-range ballistic missile, range is not the important factor,” said Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral student at the University of Oslo specializing in missile and missile technology, to the Associated Press. .
“The fact that it was carrying a MIRV payload [misil que lleva a su vez varias cabezas explosivas capaces de alcanzar diferentes objetivos] This is much more important for signaling purposes and is why Russia opted for this solution. This payload is exclusively associated with nuclear-capable missiles,” he added in statements reported by The Guardian.
How likely is Russia to use nuclear weapons?
The Kremlin has already brandished its strategic arsenal during the Ukrainian conflict to try to deter any Western involvement alongside kyiv. But despite all the threats, the United States has claimed to have seen no signs of unusual movements in Russian nuclear weapons stockpiles, suggesting there has been no change in the physical position of tactical warheads. .
Most experts say Russia’s use of nuclear weapons is unlikely for now, but warn against complacency. Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, says he does not think dropping a bomb in Ukraine is on Moscow’s list of options, “mainly because it would not contribute to achieving military objectives, and Russia is moving forward. Right now. »
Furthermore, using a nuclear weapon in conflict for the first time since 1945 would unite much of the world against Russia in a way that Moscow could not easily predict, Podvig argues. “So it would be a risky bet. However, I cannot rule out that the Kremlin is ready to take a risk. Especially if Moscow believes it can count on a weak response. We don’t know,” he told the Bluesky network.
In what other ways can Russia counterattack the West?
Moscow has shown great imagination in using hybrid tactics against its enemies, which take place in the “gray zone” between peace and war. Russia has already exploited the flow of people migrating to the West, directing them towards the Polish, Lithuanian and Finnish borders with the aim of provoking political difficulties in these countries.
Russian military intelligence also allegedly carried out assassinations in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Austria, Turkey and elsewhere. And it planned sabotage actions, such as the use of incendiary devices at DHL freight centers in Germany and the United Kingdom in July. Western intelligence services believe these attempted attacks were simulations of possible similar attacks on flights to North America.
In the United States as in Europe, intelligence services denounce the fact that Russian robots on social networks are dedicated to amplifying the problems generating confrontation in Western societies, with the aim of weakening social cohesion and strengthening the extreme right. Russia has also been accused of jamming GPS signals, particularly over the Baltic, thus disrupting the navigation of thousands of airliners.
This Wednesday, Danish authorities identified a Chinese cargo ship as being closest to the area of the Baltic Sea where two submarine communications cables were cut earlier this week. However, Elisabeth Braw, conflict expert gray areas of the think tank The Atlantic Council says it is not ruling out Russian involvement.
“Merchant ships generally don’t cut submarine cables for fun,” Braw said. “What we have seen is that Russia is very good at using intermediaries.”
Which allies and intermediaries can Russia use?
Moscow has a history of entering into temporary marriages of convenience with allies and proxies to disrupt the West. According to a report last month in the Wall Street Journal, Russia provided targeting data to Yemeni Houthi rebels for their attacks on Western shipping in the Red Sea.
In the United Kingdom, the head of MI5, the national security service, said in October that Russian intelligence had stepped up its collaboration with criminal gangs in a “sustained mission to bring chaos to Britain’s streets.” and European: we have seen arson, sabotage.” and much more.
How can Western countries respond to Russia’s ‘hybrid war’?
The fact that these attacks occur in a gray zone, using proxies, allows for credible deniability and makes them particularly difficult to contain or respond to. They do not rise to the level of open war, criminal investigations do little to hold Moscow accountable, and the intelligence agencies of Western states are limited in most cases to reacting in kind.
“We are not going to jam Russian navigation signals in the water or in the air, because that could cause accidents,” says Braw: “The Russians are very good at this. They continue to innovate and if that succeeds, so much the better if the effect is insignificant, nothing happens, because they won’t be punished. It’s very difficult to figure out how to hold them accountable and punish them.
