In November 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that China’s slowdown in growth would impact sub-Saharan Africa. Barely a month had passed since the announcement that Chinese lending to the continent had hit a record low in 2022, at $1 billion, a far cry from the nearly $29 billion in 2016. Beijing’s golden age in Africa seemed to be giving way to a more pragmatic solution, with fewer and more cautious investments, after debt problems led many countries to struggle to repay money and others, such as Zambia and Ghana, to default.
The West has blamed China for drowning the continent in debt. Xi Jinping’s government is the one that lends the most to African states (17% of all the continent’s external debt), but the majority of the debt remains internal and 77% of Africa’s external debt is contracted with private creditors and financial institutions such as the African Union, World Bank or IMF.
In this situation, the Chinese president wanted to set the table to put an end to all rumors of distancing. In early September, President Xi Jinping received 50 heads of state from 54 African countries in Beijing at the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), an event that defines every three years the relations between the African continent and the Asian giant.
At the forum, investments in agriculture, mining and especially renewable energy were closed, and Beijing made its traditional economic promise for the next three years: $50 billion. The figure is not insignificant: at the last edition of FOCAC in 2021, China had reduced its promises of money from $60 billion by $20 billion and, although they have not returned to pre-coronavirus levels, investments have increased – even if they are still far from the period of the greatest investments.
Before the official launch of FOCAC, information was published that in 2023 the Asian giant had increased its loans to Africa for the first time in seven years. Already in the official speech before African leaders, the word “together” was most pronounced by the Chinese president, who tried to convince them that Beijing is a reliable and development-minded partner for the continent, as a counterweight to Europe and the United States.
Renewables, China’s future in Africa
Xi Jinping has ushered in a new phase, moving away from unbridled investment to seek a more sustainable model based on critical minerals and renewable energy.
By 2023, China was responsible for three-quarters of global investment in renewable energy manufacturing, with more than eight out of ten solar panels and electric car batteries, and two out of three wind turbines. The Asian giant’s bet has led the country to have shares and look for markets to invest in.
In this context, Africa presents an opportunity: the continent will double its energy demand by 2050, and the vast majority will be driven by renewables. At FOCAC, China has struck deals to develop renewable energy projects. In Nigeria, it will build an electric tricycle assembly plant and a renewable energy training center; in Zambia, it will install rooftop panels and expand two solar power plants; and in South Africa, it will host a renewable energy forum to promote it in a country that still relies on coal and suffers from daily power cuts.
Added to this is the renewed interest in lithium, the key to electric batteries. Zimbabwe is the world’s fifth largest producer and has 20% of global reserves. China already has four processing plants there, the latest having opened in August, and the Chinese are keen to invest more in a growing sector.
Beijing’s efforts to develop renewable energy have been recognized by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who said the announced deals between China and Africa should “lead the renewable energy revolution.”
China, facing Western “colonialism”
Xi Jinping announced 5 billion less than what Joe Biden had promised in Washington to the same African presidents in December 2022 for the next three years. The renewed American interest in investing in Africa to counter Chinese power has led Beijing to deploy efforts in specific areas.
One of them is Kenya. In May, Biden hosted Kenyan President William Ruto, who also supports him in the UN security mission in Haiti. China has promised to fund the expansion of the Madaraka Express train, vital to Kenya’s exports, and managed to wrest from France the billion-dollar Rironi-Malaba highway project on the border with Uganda.
In addition, the Chinese government announced that it would invest $2 billion to overhaul the damaged Tazara railway line, built by Mao Zedong in 1975 to export minerals such as cobalt and copper from southern Democratic Republic of Congo and northern Zambia, via the port of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania. This line competes with the Lobito Corridor, the train funded by the United States and the European Union between Angola and these same mining areas.
Beyond monetary promises, the ninth FOCAC reinforced the idea that China is Africa’s ideal partner. The forum was held from September 4 to 6 under the theme “Common Future” and Xi Jinping assured that the Asian giant shares with Africa a “common past” of fighting imperialism, thus trying to counter the Western narrative that China seeks neocolonial domination of the continent, something African leaders reject.
“I don’t agree that this is an oppressive or neo-colonial relationship. This is a mutually beneficial relationship based on recognition, respect and also promoting the development of each country. “China is much more focused on the development of countries on our continent,” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said.
The continent’s youth also have an unfavorable view of China: The Ichikowitz Family Foundation’s 2024 African Youth Survey, conducted in 16 countries, shows that young people see China as the most influential international actor, and 83% believe the impact of their presence is positive. China is seeking to present itself as a partner that cares about Africa’s real development, for example by training thousands of people in key sectors such as agriculture, education, health and security.
The Beijing government wants to win the favor of the African bloc, 54 countries essential to vote at the UN, an organization in which they voted like China in 71% of the resolutions, against 29% of affinity with the United States. At FOCAC, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs stressed her support for the expansion of the UN Security Council to the African Union, less than a month before the 79th General Assembly to be held at the end of September in New York.
