In Senegal, power in a position of strength in the National Assembly to implement its “rupture” program

Victory is clear for Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye. Following the victory of the latter in the presidential elections eight months ago, Senegal’s executive tandem is now in a position of strength in the National Assembly. His party, the African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (Pastef), won three-quarters of the seats (130 out of 165) during the early legislative elections on Sunday, November 17, according to provisional results. A tidal wave that offers the Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko, complete freedom to implement a program of “rupture” will probably make the opposition break out in a cold sweat.

On Wednesday, in the Council of Ministers, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye welcomed the opening of the “rectification phase […] and accountability, synonymous with tracking down those who became illicitly enriched under Macky Sall’s two mandates (2012-2024). In recent months, Sonko has multiplied attacks and insinuations about the misappropriation of public funds and financial mismanagement revealed by audits carried out in various ministries and administrations. According to the former Treasury inspector, it is, for example, almost “1 billion CFA francs” (around 1.5 billion euros) that were allegedly discovered in the bank account of a former dignitary whose name has not been revealed.

“These people looted and sold inalienable assets of the State of Senegal, which they offered to their friends,” supports a close friend of the Prime Minister.

Lawsuits

In the crosshairs of the authorities is Macky Sall. Installed in Morocco in the hours following his transfer of power, the former head of state tried to return during the legislative elections. Despite his position at the top of the list, he only won 16 seats out of 165. Too few to guarantee political protection, while Ousmane Sonko set the tone during a press conference in September, accusing Sall of having manipulated Sall. “counterfeit” the budget deficit and the hidden public debt, which would amount to 76.3% of GDP instead of the announced 65.9%.

He, his Prime Minister Amadou Ba (elected deputy), as well as other former Finance Ministers (such as Mamadou Moustapha Ba, who committed suicide in early November in Paris, according to French authorities), were promised proceedings before the Court. Superior of Justice. “When it’s installed, people will know we have proof of what we said, including account statements.” he said on television on the eve of the elections.

Composed of sixteen deputies and presided over by a magistrate, this institution included in the Constitution was only used once, in 1962, in the conflict between President Léopold Sédar Senghor and his Prime Minister Mamadou Dia. “Under Abdoulaye Wade or Macky Sall, members of this court were never appointed. No doubt because it went against the interests of the powers of the time. judge Alassane Ndao, professor-researcher in political science at the Gaston-Berger University of Saint-Louis.

This promise to moralize political life is not new in Senegal, but it has already shown its limits. In 2012, Macky Sall, at the beginning of his first term, resurrected the Court for the Repression of Illicit Enrichment (CREI), before it was criticized for its politicization. Only Karim Wade, son of Abdoulaye Wade and rival of Macky Sall, was convicted in 2019 of various financial embezzlements, which excluded him from the presidential race.

“The context is not the same today, nuance Babacar Ndiaye, political scientist at the Wathi think tank. In his time, Macky Sall had to chase down the people he had traveled with. Pastef, which has never governed, is not trapped in these ties. However, it would be a mistake for its leaders to focus solely on accountability. The time for justice is long, but people are waiting for economic reforms to improve their daily lives. »

Dilemma

For those in power, the absolute emergency remains the vote on the 2025 budget before the end of the year. A challenge given the schedule. After the validation of the results, it will be necessary to establish the headquarters of the Assembly, elect its president… before voting on the finance law. In a context of budget deficit estimated by the authorities at 10.4% of GDP, the presidential majority seems pushed to reduce public spending.

Hence the idea of ​​voting to end the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE) and the Higher Council of Local Authorities (HCCT), whose abolition was rejected in September. “For Pastef, these organizations have fueled clientelism for years by serving as a base for the allies of successive leaders. Eliminating them represents a saving of 15 billion CFA francs per year, a non-negligible figure for the 2025 budget. calculated Alassane Ndao.

Another obstacle lies in the government’s budget roadmap. While waiting for the Court of Auditors to validate the true figures of the public deficit, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suspended the payment of its loan of 1.9 billion dollars, which left Sonko facing a dilemma: cut subsidies to the energy to facilitate future IMF disbursements or maintain its promises of social justice?

“It seems unlikely that the government will launch a strict austerity plan. You can opt for an increase in electricity prices without risking losing popularity. Especially since Senegal has twice this year obtained facilities to borrow in international markets despite its economic difficulties. analyzes François Conradie, political scientist at Oxford Economics Africa. As for the IMF, it may be less intransigent due to the geopolitical context. Given the difficulties faced by Westerners in West Africa, Senegal is a country that needs attention. »