SHaving painfully emerged from limbo on Saturday 21 September, after eleven weeks of political paralysis, Michel Barnier’s government had no right to be honoured, and rightly so. Born from the alliance between Emmanuel Macron’s camp and the Les Républicains (LR) party, the new team responsible for salvaging what can be salvaged from the disastrous dissolution of 9 June is both exuberant and unbalanced.
It is clearly leaning to the right without guaranteeing any stability to the executive, which remains in the minority in the National Assembly and is immediately accused of having disregarded the election results.
The appointment of Bruno Retailleau, a representative of the Catholic and conservative right to the Ministry of the Interior, and that of Laurence Garnier, opposed to marriage for all and the constitutionalisation of voluntary termination of pregnancy, to the State Secretariat for Consumer Affairs are the symbols of this worrying change. The renewal of seven members of a defeated government, including Sébastien Lecornu and Rachida Dati, defies the laws of alternation and the need for cohabitation.
The drawn-out negotiations that led to the creation of the new team reveal the bitter battle for influence between Emmanuel Macron, weakened by the dissolution, and Michel Barnier, seeking parliamentary legitimacy. The two heads of the executive are trying to reach an agreement on a modus vivendi between the two. “cohabitation” claimed by LR and the “Demanding coexistence” proposed by the head of state.
The parties signed their declaration. They literally surrounded the new prime minister to negotiate their influence. The right pushed the government, the Macronists and their allies kept their influence on the economy, social issues and national education. The reserved domain of the President of the Republic is maintained, but Michel Barnier obtains direct supervision of the ministers responsible for the budget, the overseas territories and Europe.
a snub
Without having sealed a proper coalition agreement, the new team is only holding together by a few vague, superficial commitments.. It remains at the mercy of party leaders who have chosen to stay out of government, highlighting the fragility of the structure.
The political message runs counter to the hopes for change raised during the legislative campaign. Defeated by the dissolution, Macronism is risking its survival in alliance with another loser, LR, challenging the Republican Front which had propelled the New Popular Front to the lead in the second round of the election. Only the former socialist Didier Migaud, promoted to Keeper of the Seals, accepted the adventure, which makes the objective of a broad coalition proposed by the President of the Republic obsolete.
The extent of the snub to the civic reflex that led a large majority of voters to reject, in July, the risk of a far-right takeover can be measured above all by this overwhelming observation: the new government is the thanks of the National Rally, which will be able to raise the stakes on immigration at will.
The deep democratic malaise that emerges from this situation overlooks the many burning issues facing Michel Barnier. Paradoxically, it is his seriousness that may give him hope for a while before being hit with a censure. Whatever party, none of the contenders for the 2027 presidential election has an interest in a sudden decline of the country. It is also against this reality that the depth of the French political crisis can be measured.
