Russia closed part of the airspace from 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. in the area of the Kapustin Yar test range for missile tests, which may indicate possible combat launches. However, this does not necessarily mean the immediate use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs).
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that Russian leaders may repeat the launch of the Oreshnik ballistic missile, previously used on November 21 to attack Ukraine. Experts believe Russia is seeking to raise tensions and pressure the West to reduce support for kyiv. ISW predicts additional tests of these missiles in the coming days to continue the informational impact.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has up to 10 Oreshnik missiles that could be used for such tests. The missile was launched from the “Kedr” mobile complex. According to experts, these missiles can be intercepted by modern air defense systems, for example SM-3, Arrow 3 or THAAD, which Ukraine does not yet have.
The move underscores Russia’s continued efforts to use missile strikes as leverage and a show of force.
