“The south of Spain is on the verge of having the climate of Marrakech”

Monitoring the global weather is not an easy task. As explained Francisco Javier Tapiadorprofessor of Earth physics at the University of Castile-La Mancha, all the rain gauges in the world would not occupy an area larger than that of a football field.

It is for this reason that the American space agency, the famous NASA, launched the Global Precipitation Measurement program, which measures precipitation around the world via satellite.

Tapiador has been working on this project for a decade, articulating the Spanish contribution. He acknowledges that the satellite was not prepared to measure the incredible amount of rain that fell in some areas of Valencia on October 29. This forced them to recalibrate the algorithm values ​​for our region.

However, the latest DANA, which caused more than 200 deaths and millions of euros in material losses, is not something that surprised him or any other climate expert: events like this are exceptional but climate change will make them more frequent.

The physique is realistic. There is little that can be done to stop climate change and it is likely that southern Spain will become a semi-arid region where rainfall can be torrential: a combination of drought and downpours.

How was the DANA which devastated the east and south of the peninsula on October 29 exceptional?

It was quite unusual. The amount of precipitation in half an hour forced NASA to change the maximum threshold of the algorithm that estimates precipitation by satellite. There have always been cold drops in the Levant (we now call them DANA for technical reasons), but this one was quite spectacular.

How common will such DANA be in the future?

It may be more common. Our climate models have been telling us for decades that these types of situations will become more intense and more frequent as climate change progresses. This was not a surprise. We knew something like this was going to happen eventually. And we also know, because we calculated it, that in the future they could be more frequent.

You are part of NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement project. What is your goal?

Yes, I have been part of the international scientific team for over ten years, although I have been working there for twenty years. I have led several national research projects to articulate this Spanish contribution to the GPM.

This is a space mission to measure precipitation around the world. To do this, in 2014 we launched a radar into space, the main satellite of the mission. This is a radar similar to Aemet’s, except that it circles the Earth and uses other frequencies. This way we can see the rain better: from above and everywhere, including the sea.

Please note that we do not have rain gauges everywhere. In fact, if we combined them all in the world, their combined area would be less than the size of a football field.

What we then do is combine the information from this orbiting radar with other satellites, such as those that measure Earth’s microwave emissions, and from there we determine the amount of rain and snow falling at every location with the best possible precision, because there is no better technology at the moment. We are already working on the next mission when it ends its useful life, but for now this is what it is.

One of the reasons for the intensity of DANA is a Mediterranean with much higher temperatures than usual. Is this a time bomb?

Yes, that’s another thing we’ve been saying for decades. A warm Mediterranean is a time bomb for the climate of this region of the planet. In fact, we are already suffering from it. Although precise calculations must be made to determine the contribution of global warming to this episode, generally speaking, we can already say that the phenomenon is consistent with the climate change predictions that we made several decades ago.

What will happen to this part of Spain that does not face the Mediterranean?

What we see in the models is a big difference between the northern and southern halves. The south of Spain is on the way to becoming a place with a climate like that of Marrakech, which is not incompatible with a whole year of precipitation falling on us in a single day, as is currently the case .

Northern Spain is protected by mountain barriers and will continue to be wet, but one should not be overconfident as a small change in precipitation in these areas and an increase in temperature can have detrimental effects on the vegetation . I’m more concerned about the south, from Atocha down.

Should we give a new meaning to the concept of “Mediterranean climate”? What will the Spanish climate be like in the years to come?

The Mediterranean climate has the particularity of its variability: showers, droughts, winds, calms in a succession that is not very predictable in detail, but more predictable in averages.

The Spanish climate of the years to come, of the decades to come, will be one of great regional contrasts. What I said before: a northern half with a climate similar to today and an increasingly semi-arid southern half. But we must realize that year after year we may face droughts in the north and downpours in the south and the Levant. It is not incompatible, even if it is difficult to understand. What is important is the long-term trend. This is what defines the climates and problems we may encounter.

Is it too late to reverse the situation?

I think so. The climate has a certain “inertia” that causes warming to continue for decades, even if we stop emitting greenhouse gases. And then it doesn’t look like we’re going to stop. We are now in the phase of mitigation and adaptation to the effects of climate change.

To prevent a disaster like the one caused by DANA in October, will it be enough to rely on engineering work?

Engineering, which I believe is key to mitigation and adaptation efforts, is essential, but I do not believe it is sufficient.

Civil engineers, who must now provide immediate solutions so that the same thing does not happen again next year, there or elsewhere, take into account the studies of other professionals, such as physicists or geographers, but we do not let’s not project. They are responsible for designing the infrastructure necessary to minimize the effects of what is to come.

It is important, however, that their actions take into account what we know about the new climate, which I don’t know if they are aware of. They must lead the process, but it is important that they ensure they have the best science available.

Political ideology seems to influence questions such as whether or not to warn the population, to rethink the channels or to renaturalize them… Do you worry that an assessment on your part based on your knowledge and experience will be interpreted as an opinion based on ideology?

No, the truth is that I don’t have this fear. In my books and articles, I have made it clear that my vision is not at all ideological. In Spain: anatomy of an extraordinary country (Arzalia) I have made it clear that my analysis of the country aligns with loyalty to the state and not certain colors. The same in Vertebrate Spain (Renaissance).

I have no ideological mortgage, I do not depend on anyone, I do not seek or expect favors, I am not a member of any party and no one gives me instructions. What I say when asked is my professional opinion with the good of my country and my fellow citizens in mind.

On the contrary, I can be criticized for having a civil servant’s vision of the issue, of this Spanish tradition of public service outside of politicians. There are people who don’t see well.