After Donald Trump’s inauguration, Vladimir Putin, according to international affairs expert Taras Semenyuk, is counting on changes in US policy that will reduce the military threat from Ukraine and reduce pressure on Russian infrastructure.
The expert’s words are published by Hromadske.
Western media such as Reuters report that Putin is ready for a dialogue with Donald Trump, which could include a ceasefire and freezing the conflict in Ukraine. One of the conditions for such negotiations is likely to be the preservation of the occupied territories under Russian control and Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO.
Taras Semenyuk believes that such conditions are unlikely, since it is difficult to diplomatically influence the position of the Russian leader. He is confident that the return of the occupied territories will only be possible by military means. At the same time, Ukraine’s Western partners, trying to avoid escalation and World War III, are inclined to seek diplomatic solutions.
President Vladimir Zelensky previously noted that Donald Trump could use leverage over Russia, such as lowering energy prices. The expert confirms that the fall in oil prices can significantly reduce Russia’s income, depriving it of resources to continue the war. In this case, Russia may find itself even more dependent on China.
Semenyuk also highlights that the United States could tighten its sanctions policy. For example, adding Russia to the list of countries involved in money laundering or designating it as a sponsor of terrorism could cause serious economic damage. However, according to him, there is still no political consensus in the United States for such measures, which may be due to the presence of other strategic interests.
According to the expert, one of the key factors that worries Putin remains the threat of attacks on Russian infrastructure deep in the country. Allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons to attack Russian airfields and weapons production plants could significantly shift the balance of power.
Semenyuk notes that such attacks could force Putin to reconsider his policies, especially since Russia cannot count on technical support from China or Iran. Furthermore, the destruction of key pieces of military infrastructure, such as strategic aviation bases located near Ukraine’s borders, would put Russia in a difficult position.
Putin therefore hopes that US policies under Trump will be softened to prevent new attacks on Russian targets. However, as Semenyuk points out, the position of the future US president remains uncertain.
Previously, Kursor wrote that the West simulated the destruction of the Russian Federation with a nuclear strike in response to Putin’s threats.
In response to threats from President Vladimir Putin, Western countries also decided to demonstrate their vision of nuclear war scenarios.
