After a period of tension, stability has emerged in the occupied Abkhazia region of Georgia. However, it is unclear how long this will last. The tension between the opposition and the authorities of the self-proclaimed independent republic under the protection of Russia has led to the resignation of “president” Aslan Bjaniya. Along with him, “prime minister” Alexander Ankvab also left his position. Ankvab led the so-called republic between 2011 and 2014. He was a supporter of rapprochement with Russia and increasing the status of the Russian language. “Vice President” Badra Gunba will take Bjaniya’s place. Representatives of the “government” and the opposition in Abkhazia also signed an agreement according to which the “president” Aslan Bjaniya resigned.
The reason for the protests is the intention of the local “authority” to ratify the investment agreement with Russia. According to protesters, this will lead to the suppression of local companies by large Russian companies. The unrest began on November 11 after security forces detained five opposition activists. The demonstrations were temporarily suspended after the activists were released, but resumed on November 15, when parliament was due to consider ratifying the agreement.
“Caspian” newspaper article on the subject.
The first protest against Russia
Thus, for the first time in Abkhazia there is resentment against Russia. The process itself coincides with the period of normalization of relations between Russia and Georgia. Although control of the region, which is Georgian territory, is in the hands of Russia, the situation may change in the future. Will the region leave Russian control in the future? Time will tell.
View from Georgia
The events that occurred in the so-called institution did not affect the political agenda of Georgia. So far, neither the government nor the political parties of this country have evaluated what is happening in Abkhazia. This topic does not appear in the media space or on social networks. The only exception is Mikheil Saakashvili’s comment on Facebook that the Abkhazians are doing what Georgians are supposed to do, namely blocking the “Russian colonial law.” The former president, currently in prison, said that the demonstrations in Sukhumi are an example for the rest of Georgia, but they also have their own risks. “The Abkhazians have done the work of all of Georgia by blocking the Russian colonial law. However, there is a danger in the victory of the Abkhazians: they will gain the sympathy of the West with their successful struggle. This forces us to continue our struggle for victory in the rest of Georgia, otherwise the democratic world will turn its back on him, there is a danger that he will target the Abkhazians, and this leaves us no chance to retreat,” Saakashvili said.
The Georgian government does not have an Abkhazian policy
In general, in Tbilisi there is an acute crisis regarding the analysis of the events in Abkhazia. The government does not have an Abkhazian policy. As for the Georgian press, there is a strong possibility that the crisis in relations between Abkhazia and Russia has caused Sukhumi to head towards Tbilisi. What happened in Sukhumi is welcomed by the majority of Georgians. It seems to them that the Abkhazians really rebelled against Russia. In reality, the protests in Abkhazia address issues related to land property rights, lack of institutional control, and infighting between different political groups. In these events there are no signs of democracy or attempts by Sukhumi to improve relations with Georgia. With the Kremlin it is necessary to expand Russian business in Abkhazia.
Dependency on Russia
The unrecognized entity is largely economically dependent on Russia. Thus, the former “foreign minister” of Abkhazia, Inal Ardzinba, stated in 2023 that since 2008 Moscow has given them about 110 billion rubles. In addition, in 2023, 72% of the republic’s total foreign trade volume fell on Russia. Various privileges were also introduced for Abkhazia, including free supply of electricity from the Russian Federation in autumn and winter. Russian Deputy Minister of Economic Development Dmitry Volvach noted in March that the volume of Russian financial aid to Abkhazia should be 5.6 billion rubles in 2024 alone. The Russian government claims that it does not interfere in Abkhazia’s internal processes. They hope that the problems will be resolved politically. Artur Atayev, an expert on the Caucasus, is not optimistic about the development of the political crisis: “Two irreconcilable sides have emerged. The good thing is that they avoid harsh measures against each other. This means that the next stage should be the appearance But it is not yet clear knows who will take on this role: Russia, South Ossetia or another country. Ideally, a third force emerges within Abkhazia, then unfortunately we will be able to strengthen it. So far I have only seen the republic fall.
Most likely, the new “authority” established in Abkhazia will try, first of all, to restore relations with Tbilisi. Because this can also help Abkhazia get out of the current blockade situation.
