He olive oil priceknown as “liquid gold”, experienced historic increasesreaching in some cases up to 12 euros per liter. Causes for the increase in the price of olive oil include severe droughts, increased production costs and global inflation. The spring of 2023 was one of the driest since 1985, significantly reducing production in Spain, the world’s largest exporter.
This forced many consumers to limit their consumption or look for alternatives when the price exceeded 5 euros per liter, considered a psychological threshold. Today, Spanish production is expected to grow by 48% over the 2024/2025 campaignreaching 1.3 million tonnes, which could stabilize the price of olive oil, which could fall to between 4 and 5 euros per liter in spring 2025. Although costs at source have already fallen significantly, in supermarkets the decline is slower and it will take time for consumers to see a real reduction.
Evolution of the price of olive oil
The price of olive oil has been the protagonist of a constant increase basket. This trend, however, is starting to reverse, even if the drop is more noticeable initially than in the supermarkets. So far this year, the extra virgin olive oil has reduced its original price by more than 20%, while on supermarket shelves there is a reduction of just 10% for the cheapest white brands.
The distributors explain that the price reduction It will be gradual, since the oil currently on sale corresponds to lots acquired weeks ago, before the recent declines at the origin were reflected. For their part, farmers warn that an accelerated decline could affect their ability to cover production costs. This, combined with a weak link stock, fuels suspicions that there may be speculation in the market.
The origin of this stabilization lies in a significant improvement in production. After two historically poor harvests, the Ministry of Agriculture projections For the 2024/2025 campaign, they place Spanish production at around 1.26 million tonnes, an increase of almost 50% compared to the previous year. It is even estimated that this figure could exceed 1.3 million tonnes, of which 65% would be intended for export. This increase, combined with the partial recovery of global production in countries such as Greece and Tunisia, favors the normalization of prices.
Despite improvements in production, farmers denounce a artificial pressure on the original prices. According to industry representatives, some buyers are taking advantage of producers’ need for liquidity to buy oil at low prices. This phenomenon, described as “abnormal” by organizations such as the Union of Small Farmers (UPA), could distort the market.
Going forward, prices are expected to continue to adjust. Gonzalo Guillén, general manager of Acesur, predicts that the “floor” of the price of olive oil In supermarkets, it could be reached between April and May 2025, with a liter oscillating between 4 and 5 euros. This forecast coincides with estimates from other players in the sector, who emphasize that the relationship between supply and demand will be decisive in the coming months.
Large packagers and distribution chains assure that this adjustment will come, but require patience. As they explain, the oil now reaching the consumer corresponds to lots purchased before the recent price drop. Furthermore, they argue that decreases in agri-food sector They are generally staggered to avoid price volatility in the first links of the chain.
In this context, experts like economist Gonzalo Bernardos have predicted a significant price reduction in the coming months. According to their calculations, olive production could double compared to last year, reaching 1.7 million tonnes in 2025. This would increase supply, allowing the price of oil to drop significantly, to the benefit of consumers.
Despite the positive projections, the olive sector calls for no rush. They denounce that the current prices at the origin, close to 5 euros per kilo, do not cover the production costswhich cost around 6 euros. This is why they ask to avoid speculative practices and to guarantee a more balanced and sustainable market.
In short, even if the olive oil price shows clear signs of market stabilization, its decline will be a slow and gradual process. With a significantly better harvest underway and international demand remaining strong, the sector faces the complex challenge of passing on these reductions to the end consumer. This adjustment must be made without compromising the economic viability of producers, faced with high production costs and tight profit margins. Finding a sustainable balance between fair prices for consumers and suitable conditions for farmers will be essential to ensure long-term market stability.
