On the same day as his centenary, Allan Karlsson jumps out of the window of his nursing home, escapes the reception that awaited him and begins new adventures of sweet madness. Reading the study published on Wednesday, October 30, by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee), we better understand the stunts attempted by the hero of Old man who didn’t want to celebrate his birthday, this best-selling novel by Jonas Jonasson (Presses de la Cité, 2011): Statistically, it is the day of your birthday when everyone is most likely to die, by far.
INSEE has quantified the phenomenon. In the last twenty years, from 2004 to 2023, the risk of dying on this day increases an average of 6% for the entire population. But only for men between 18 and 40 years old, it increases by 24%. For centenarians like the eccentric Allan Karlsson, the risk even increases by 29%!
This “birthday syndrome”, which affected both the painter Raphaël and the singer Dick Rivers, the writer Jean-Bertrand Pontalis and the actress Ingrid Bergman, is not exclusive to France. HE “birthday effect” It has also been observed in Switzerland, the United States, Japan and Ukraine, with rates varying across cultures.
a winter day
Several explanations come together, all of them linked to the exceptional nature given to this particular day. The first cited by INSEE is due to the excesses committed during these birthdays, especially among young adults. Too much alcohol, too many good meals, exhausting parties, late night car trips. This increases the risk of accidents, falls and cardiovascular problems.
But other factors also influence. The emotion, the stress of the celebration, the awareness of the passage of time can explain part of the increase in mortality that day. Nathalie Blanpain, from INSEE, also speaks “the desire to reach your birthday” : he “could delay the onset of death in people at the end of life,” who would give up on the big day. The study finally mentions the risks of suicide, observed in particular in Japan: “This symbolic date could exacerbate a feeling of sadness or loneliness. »
However, overall, the deadliest day of the year continues to be January 3, the INSEE note states. From 2004 to 2023, an average of 1,900 deaths were recorded on this day in France, compared to 1,600 on other days. Everything adds up to making January 3 a black day, says the institute. It is a winter day, a season of strong virus circulation and that follows the end of the year holidays. “The desire to spend these holidays with loved ones, as well as the desire to reach a new year,” could delay the death of older people and partly explain this spike, INSEE writes. In addition, January 3 corresponds to the restart of scheduled operations at the hospital, another cause of death. On the contrary, August 15, a holiday in the middle of summer, is the least deadly day of the year.
