The IDF is faced with the task of completely destroying Hezbollah’s military power so that residents of Israel’s northern regions can return to their homes. However, despite the significant blows Hezbollah has received, a full-scale war has not yet begun. Military expert David Sharp explains why Israel is refraining from taking broader action and what developments might look like.
Has the Third Lebanon War Begun?
Sharp notes that we can talk about the beginning of the war on October 8 last year, when Hezbollah supported Hamas and attacked Israel. However, there is still no full-scale war, as all restrictions have not yet been lifted. In recent days, the IDF has stepped up attacks on Hezbollah, which has led to an increase in the level of the conflict, but Israel has not yet launched a full-fledged operation. Sharp explains that the reason for this is the large potential losses and pressure from the United States, which is trying to prevent an escalation.
Temporal strategy or inevitability?
According to the expert, the current airstrikes are not the final solution. Political agreements with Hezbollah are theoretically possible, but Hezbollah shows no desire for peace. Israel, in turn, does not intend to succumb to fictitious agreements, since such actions will not lead to strategic success and will not eliminate the threat of a new war.
Israel hopes to change the rules of the game and create intimidation so that terrorists do not even think of attacking. This is only possible with significant changes, which in the future could lead to a major war.
Political and military dilemmas
Israel is in a difficult position: it needs to be decisive in the eyes of its Middle Eastern neighbours and moderate in the eyes of its Western allies. The country cannot afford to appear weak, as this could undermine trust in the army and the state. Over the past 15 years, Israel has often demonstrated weakness towards Hezbollah, allowing it to increase its military power and attack Israel with the confidence of impunity.
Pager Operation and Its Importance.
Recently, Israel or some unknown force carried out a unique operation by blowing up pagers used by Hezbollah, leading to chaos and heavy casualties among the militants. This operation was a new milestone, demonstrating significant technological capabilities, but without immediate and large-scale action, its effect may diminish. Sharpe believes that Israel needs to seize this moment to strike, otherwise the enemy will recover and continue its aggression.
The future of relations with Hezbollah
Israel is at a crossroads: the choice between sham agreements and a full-scale war. Israeli leaders and citizens understand that returning to the previous conditions is unsatisfactory and the country is committed to fundamental changes that can only be achieved through decisive action. The question is how long Israel will be able to balance the desire to avoid major losses and the need to deal a significant blow to Hezbollah.
Previously, Kursor reported that the IDF’s attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon were evaluated in the United States.
During the attacks by the Defense Forces, Hezbollah’s firepower dealt devastating blows, but the conflict is not over, so the United States is trying to find a diplomatic way.
