Corruption weighs heavily on Pedro Sánchez’s government and brings the PSOE’s electoral expectations to its worst record in the legislature, according to a SocioMétrica survey for EL ESPAÑOL. This is the first investigation carried out after the declaration before the judge of the brain of Koldo’s plot, Victor de Aldama.
If a general election were held today, the PSOE would obtain 109 seats (12 less than currently in Congress) and 26.7% of the votes, which represents a drop of 5 points compared to the previous elections.
The PP thus extends its advantage over the Socialists to 8.1 points of voting intention: the party of Alberto Núñez Feijóo would obtain the 34.8% of the votes and 152 seats.
The Popular Party would thus add 43 more seats than the PSOE (which would lose any possibility of governing), even if it would be 24 seats short of reaching an absolute majority. The SocioMétrica survey was carried out through 1,227 surveys, between Friday November 22 and Sunday November 24.
This therefore reflects the impact that the confessions of businessman Víctor de Aldama had on public opinion, who declared on Thursday before the judge that he had paid bribes to the former minister. Jose Luis Abalos (650,000 euros), to his advisor Koldo Garcia (250,000), to the current organizational secretary of the PSOE, Santos Cerdan (15,000 euros), and the vice-president’s chief of staff Maria Jesus Montero (25,000).
Everything indicates that the businessman is only beginning to pull the thread. After the judge provisionally released him on Thursday evening, Aldama addressed a warning to the President of the Government from the prison gates: “Since he wants so much evidence, Don’t worry about Mr. Sánchez, he will have proof of everything that has been said [ante el juez]”.
Regarding the previous SocioMétrica electoral poll, published on October 21, the PSOE lost 11 seats and 1.6 points of voting intention.
The PP is also in decline, although much more slightly: it loses four seats and 0.4 points of votes compared to last month’s election. The populars were perhaps penalized by the controversy over the management of DANA, which the PSOE used to try to overthrow the president of the Generalitat Valenciana, Carlos Mazón.
On the other hand, Vox is experiencing its strongest growth in Parliament: today it would reach 13.5% of the votes, which would translate into 40 seats, compared to 33 currently in Congress. The previous poll in October gave him 11.2% of the vote and 29 seats.
More timidly, Sumar is improving his expectations, which today would obtain 6.9% of the votes and 13 seats (three more than during the October survey), despite the controversy over the resignation of his spokesperson , Íñigo Errejón, waiting to sit in the dock for alleged sexual harassment of several women.
Again, Sumar would lose 18 of 31 seats which he obtained in the general elections of 23-J. A total disaster.
Podemos was resurrected in the European elections last June, in which Irene Montero managed to be elected MEP, and today she will obtain three seats in Congress (3.6%). Insufficient to shade the platform Yolanda Diaz and above all guarantee the continuity of Pedro Sánchez in Moncloa after the next elections.
The other revelation of the European elections was that of Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), the group of voters of Alvise Pérez, which obtained three deputies. However, today’s SocioMétrica poll gives him only 2.7% of the vote, with no chance of gaining representation in the Cortes, after it emerged that Alvise had received an irregular donation of 100,000 euros from a cryptocurrency entrepreneur who is currently being prosecuted in court.
Few changes within the board of directors regarding the constellation of government partners. ERC (1.8%), Junts (1.8%) and Bildu (1.3%) would be tied today with seven seats. Arnaldo Otegi’s party wins a title in the 23-J elections and is ahead of the PNV, which would obtain five seats today, with 1.1% of the vote.
Their results are improving, going from one to two deputies, both from the BNG and from the Canarian Coalition (which today governs the archipelago with the PP). And the CUP (which benefits from the weakness of the ERC) and empty Spain would enter Congress with one seat.
With these numbers, the current block dynamics change radically. He PP and Vox would add 192 seats today (or 193, if we include the UPN), well exceeding the absolute majority, set at 176.
THE “investiture majority“which allowed Pedro Sánchez to continue in Moncloa after today’s 23-J elections this would only add 156 seats. Or 154 if we exclude the two from the Canarian Coalition (CC), today closer to the most popular.
The left bloc formed by PSOE, Sumar and Podemos would be reduced to just 125 deputies. Pedro Sánchez’s chances of remaining in Moncloa would disappear completely if he decided to dissolve the Cortes and call elections at that time.
Especially since the revelations about the Koldo affairwith the collaboration of Víctor de Aldama before the judge, could still have a much greater scope than that known until now.
The analysis of the transfer of votes explains, to a large extent, the consequences of the earthquake recorded in recent weeks. The PP continues to be the party that best retains the loyalty of its voters: it retains 84.2% of those who supported this formation during the 23-J elections. In addition, it would obtain 5.7% of those who then voted for the PSOE and 7.7% of those who abstained.
On the other hand, the PP does not receive a significant transfer (only 2.2%) from former Vox voters. On the contrary, Abascal’s party retains 80.5% of its former voters and receives 5.5% from the PP. In addition, it managed to capture 9.4% of those who abstained.
The PSOE is experiencing its downtime after Aldama’s confession before the judge. Only 69.2% of those who voted for Pedro Sánchez in previous elections would do so again today. An additional 6.5% emigrate to the ranks of Sumar and 4.1% to Podemos.
Technical sheet
The study was carried out by the company SocioMética between November 22 and 24, 2024 through 1,227 random interviews extracted from a panel of n = 10,000 individuals representative of all Spanish socio-demographic segments.
The final results were finely adjusted using a weighting variable that takes into account gender, age, province and electoral memory during the last three elections.
Maximum error: 3% (SocioMétrica’s average deviation in voting in gen23 was 1.1% and in eu24 was 0.8%). No confidence level is applicable as this is non-probability sampling. Director of the study: Gonzalo Adán. Doctor in political psychology and professor of psychometrics and social research techniques. SocioMétrica is a member of Insights + Analytics Spain.
