He olive oil, Known as “liquid gold,” it is an essential product in many cuisines and an essential part of the Mediterranean diet. However, in recent years its price has experienced significant fluctuations. Indeed, during 2023, consumers saw the price of oil reach record levels, with extra virgin olive oil exceeding 8 euros per liter in certain points of sale. This price increase has caused concern among both households and the food industry, leading many to wonder what will happen in the future given that Throughout 2024, the price of olive oil remained well above what it cost just three or four years ago.
NOW, the outlook for 2025 seems more optimisticwith forecasts pointing to a notable drop in prices thanks to a harvest that could double last year’s. Gonzalo Bernardos, economist and professor at the University of Barcelona, recently shared his analysis about this situation. According to the expert, the resumption of olive production will allow the price of olive oil to return to more accessible levels, thus benefiting millions of consumers. But what factors influence these predictions? How can a change in harvests transform the olive oil market? Below, we’ll take an in-depth look at the economist’s warning and what it could mean for consumers’ pockets in 2025.
What will happen to the price of olive oil in 2025
To understand what could happen in 2025, it is essential to analyze the causes of price increases in previous years. One of the main factors was the drastic reduction in olive production. due to unfavorable weather conditions. In 2022 and 2023, olive production fell 55% from its usual average, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture.
THE prolonged drought in key regions such as Andalusia, responsible for more than 40% of world production, was decisive. Added to this are the frosts in May and the lack of rain in critical months like July and August, which had a negative impact on crop yields. These circumstances led to an imbalance between supply and demand, causing consumer prices to skyrocket.
Gonzalo Bernardos’ prediction
Gonzalo Bernardos, economist and frequent media contributor, was categorical in his predictions: the price of olive oil will decrease significantly from January 2025. Something that was planned since the end of summer and based on the expectation of an exceptionally good harvest for the 2024-2025 campaign. In fact, he even said it could reach 1,700,000 tonnes, double the production recorded the previous year.
According to Bernardos, who told LaSexta last August, the drop in the price of olive oil will be more than evident in a few months. And he explained that it was all thanks to rains recorded during the summer in Andalusia to which must be added those of this autumn. In this way, a new harvest would be obtained with greater production, which would relieve price pressure, allowing oil to stabilize again with lower prices.
How the harvest will affect the price of oil
The impact of an abundant harvest is direct: with greater availability of olives, oil mills will be able to produce more oil, thus increasing supply and reducing prices. Furthermore, a decrease in the cost at origin, i.e. the price that producers pay for olives, has already been observed, which ultimately translates into a lower final price for consumers.
Supermarket promotions will also play a crucial role in this trend. The main the chains have already started to adjust their pricesoffering olive oil for less than 7 euros per liter in certain regions, and these offers should be even more frequent in 2025.
Economists’ recommendations to consumers
Although the scenario seems encouraging, Bernardos issues a warning: There is no need to accumulate large amounts of oil at home. According to the economist, prices will continue to fall during the year 2025, so it will be enough to buy what is right and necessary to benefit from the upcoming reductions.
Will this situation repeat itself in the future?
The olive oil market is highly dependent on weather conditions, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations. Although 2025 is shaping up to be a year of relief, climate uncertainty remains a concern. Farmers and economists agree that sustainable measures must be implemented to ensure stable production in the future, such as efficient water management and crop diversification.
In short, even if the price of olive oil seems to be heading towards a notable drop, This situation highlights the importance of long-term planning. in a sector as strategic as that of olive oil.
