New day of intense bombardment iIsraelis in Lebanon after the day with the most deaths since the end of the civil war in 1990. In concrete terms, Monday’s attacks left around 500 dead, according to sources from the Lebanese Ministry of Health. Approximately, the half the total cost of the war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006This war lasted thirty days.
Israel follows what its government calls “escalation for de-escalation”: after killing or injuring hundreds of middle managers with the explosion of their pagers and walkie-talkies, The next phase involves attacking the gang’s numerous arms depots across the country.assassinate their most prominent leaders and incidentally to cause panic among the civilian population in the hope that there will be some kind of revolt against the terrorist organization, strategy that failed miserably in Gaza.
Over the past five days, Israel has killed the veteran leader in several specific attacks. Ibrahim Aqil, involved since the early 1980s in the deaths of hundreds of American and French soldiers as well as various civilian personnel, since Ibrahim Mohammed Kabisi, responsible for overseeing the terrorist group’s missile arsenal. In related news, Israel announced Monday the death of Ali Karikileader of the southern militias, but Hezbollah assures that Kariki escaped the bombings alive.
The goal is let the terrorist gang beheaded and without the possibility of regrouping their ranks. This would prevent a rapid reaction to a possible Israeli ground attack, even if Tel Aviv insists that Everything is being done to return to normal before October 7 and that the people in the north of the country can return to their homes. We see an escalation every day. De-escalation would consist of Hezbollah refusing to continue bombing the Galilee… and that is not so clear.
The impotence of the United States
In fact, in the United States, they are pessimistic about this strategy. “We have rarely seen that a military escalation then leads to a de-escalation of tensions in a conflict,” an anonymous White House source said on Tuesday. New York Times. From the Hamas massacre and start of bombings on GazaThe policy of the Biden administration – a policy defended by the American president in his last speech before the United Nations on Tuesday – has been to call for dialogue to avoid prolonging the conflict.
The problem the United States faces is that its Arab partners failed to exert enough pressure on Hamas – not to mention Hezbollah, a Shiite organization dependent on Iran – to reach a minimum agreement and Netanyahu has been playing cat and mouse with Secretary of State Antony Blinken for months. The Americans, alongside the Egyptians, Jordanians and Qataris, have sat down the parties almost every week in Doha or Cairo and reached compromises with representatives of both camps, which were then disavowed by their respective leaders.
Several people stand next to a destroyed car at the site of an Israeli attack in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Tuesday.
Reuters
In this sense, The United States has reason to be wary of Lebanon. Israel has refused to inform him of any of its maneuvers and limits itself to communicating the results. Even if Biden insists that the situation can be reoriented, the role of American diplomacy is increasingly irrelevant. The only thing Washington clings to is the “game theory”, that is, the fact that neither side is a priori favored by a total confrontation. They are not lacking in reason.
Iran defends its creature
And that’s it Hezbollah does not want an open war with Israel like the one in 2006. He didn’t want it in October 2023, when Hassan Nasrallah publicly dismissed the possibility, and he certainly doesn’t want it now, with his forces so depleted. Nor does the White House think it would be a good idea for Israel to engage in such a competition. It cannot be ruled out, since its position is clearly advantageous, but even so, a war with Hezbollah will not be the same as a war with Hamas. The Shiite terrorist militia has an arsenal of weapons and a number of soldiers more comparable to a regular army than to a guerrilla force encapsulated in a tiny band. The risks are infinitely greater.
In addition, there is the external factor. Iran He already threatened on Monday, through his foreign minister, of “serious consequences” if Israel attacked Lebanon by land. It is clear that the ayatollahs cannot allow Hezbollah to disappear or become irrelevant. It is their creature, the combined product of the civil war in Lebanon and the Islamic revolution in Iran, and it serves their interests exclusively, unlike Hamas, whose leadership has always resided in Qatar and also receives funding from Turkey.
The last thing the United States wants is for the confrontation between Hamas and Israel to turn into open war with Hezbollah and lead to armed conflict. conflict against Iran. There was already an exchange of blank fire in April that does not bode well. It must be taken into account that Iran is also a military ally of Russia, so the ramifications may go beyond the always turbulent Middle East.
The diplomatic dilemma
NOW, It is not at all certain that Israel believes Iran’s threats. Especially because these threats are constant and repetitive. When Mossad Killed Ismail Haniyeh in TehranAli Khamenei’s regime promised that it would avenge his death by attacking Israel. This attack has not yet happened.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran in July.
Reuters
In Israel, they may think that this is just another bluff and that it will not prevent their intention to drive Hezbollah away from the border and eliminate all the senior officials who come within range. In other words, it may be When Israel talks about “de-escalation,” it is simply referring to “occupation.”: to remain in Gaza and southern Lebanon long enough to establish some order and protect its citizens.
The problem is that This solution is not diplomatically viable.. For decades, with the support of the United States, Israel has worked for peace by reaching agreements with various neighboring Arab countries and trying to normalize relations in the Arab League. In fact, the reaction of this organization to the latest bombings has been relatively timid. Occupying Gaza and the border section of Lebanon would mean to go back decades into the conflict and leave Camp David, Madrid and Oslo behind us.
Biden would leave the presidency with the talibans As owners and lords of Afghanistan, the Ayatollahs are pushing forward their nuclear project and relations between Israel and its neighbors are simmering, with two open wars on different fronts. Add to this its indecision regarding the war in Ukraine.
This is not the best business card for your vice president, Kamala Harris: His administration’s failure to present and enforce concrete solutions has left his successor in a much more unpredictable world.
