The Spanish economy will grow this year and next well above the estimated average for the eurozone, according to thean Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)The organization has revised upwards its expansion forecasts for Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2024 at 2.8% and 2.2% for 2025.
According to the new projections contained in the report “Economic Perspectives”, the Spanish GDP will grow this year one point more than its May forecast, while the figures for 2025 are two tenths higher than those achieved before the middle of the year.
The OECD rates for Spain are similar to those anticipated by the Bank of Spainwhich predicts growth of 2.8% for this year and 2.2% for the next.
Similarly, they are consistent with the estimates of the Independent Authority for Budget Responsibility (AIReF)which predicts a GDP increase of 2.8% and 2.3% respectively in 2024 and 2025. For their part, the Government’s forecasts indicate a GDP increase of 2.7% in 2024 and 2.4% for 2025.
The 2.8% that the think tank developed economies predict for 2024 in Spain quadruples that of the entire eurozone. The single currency countries will be particularly penalized by Germany, whose growth will be modest at 0.1%. Similarly, Spain will more than double the two other major partners of the euro zone, namely Italy (0.8%) and France (1.1%).
Nevertheless, Spanish GDP growth will not reach the pace expected for the world as a whole (3.2% this year and next year), nor for the G20 (3.2% and 3.1% respectively). The reason is that this indicator includes some of the major emerging powers such as China, India or Brazil.
On the side of the inflationThe OECD estimates that Prices in Spain will close the year with a 3% increasehigher than that of almost all other members that are also part of the G20. Moreover, it will be significantly higher than the 2.4% calculated for the eurozone as a whole.
Reuters
Madrid
However, core inflation – which does not take into account energy and food prices – will be 2.6% in Spain, two tenths lower than that estimated for the eurozone.
The authors of the report highlight that Spain is one of the G20 countries in which wages have gained the most in purchasing power since the fourth quarter of 2019.that is, since before the covid crisis broke out. In this sense, real wages – taking into account inflation – have increased over these four and a half years by just over 2.5%. Only the United States and Brazil show more favorable figures.
