The political relationship that has marked the legislature since the very evening of the general elections of 23J, that of the PSOE with Junts, has once again experienced a new twist in the scenario. The meeting held last Friday in Switzerland by the leaders of both parties has moved this dialogue in recent hours and the movements of the socialists seem clearly oriented towards détente after the crack that has opened in recent weeks.
That same Friday night, after the meeting, some important guidelines for this week’s parliamentary activity reached the Socialist Group of the Congress. Specifically, the instruction was to activate the commissions of inquiry into the terrorist attack on Las Ramblas and the so-called “Operation Catalunya”. Both were committed to the Catalan independence groups more than a year ago in exchange for the election of Francina Armengol as President of the Chamber and were created in February. But in neither case has there been any progress so far. And the failure to comply with the agreement is one of the most recurrent reproaches of Junts to the Socialists.
But beyond the harsh tone of the discussion and the confrontation between the two delegations, the meeting allowed the Government to verify that the seven Junts deputies are not definitively lost for the future of the legislature, and that there is even a breach open to the budget. The negotiation changes the way of working and negotiating with them.
In Switzerland, Puigdemont insisted to his PSOE interlocutor on the rules of the game that, according to him, should govern the political relationship between the two parties: for every vote, a negotiation. And for every negotiation, a price. Nothing about taking for granted the vote in favour of the seven Junts deputies. So, after the last warning from the former president, Moncloa decided to backtrack. The path to stability that was to be voted on this Thursday has been postponed indefinitely. A decision that the government explains because it appreciates the possibility of moving forward with a little more time to negotiate.
The brake on the path to stability
The movement represents a reversal of the message that the Executive has been repeating since the beginning of the political year. Pedro Sánchez himself insisted on the decision that his government advance with or without a parliamentary majority, with or without budgets and either on the updated path of stability or on that of last year.
So much so that the First Vice President and Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, presented to the Council of Ministers two weeks ago the same figures that Congress had reversed at the end of July with the votes against the PP, Junts and Vox. And the people of Puigdemont had already warned that, without change and without negotiation, they would vote for the same thing again.
In the department of María Jesús Montero and in the socialist ranks themselves, this new parliamentary defeat has come to be considered a given. And even in private, they began to talk about the more than plausible scenario of a new extension of the budgets. But on Friday, everything changed again. In the midst of the reproaches and accusations exchanged, Carles Puigdemont took it upon himself to let it be known that the door to his seven seats in Congress would remain open in the future as long as the conditions he demands are met. “Here, we negotiate piece by piece,” they insist to Junts.
The government’s response this Tuesday was clear: the process on the path to stability is slowed down because now it wants to negotiate with Junts what has not been negotiated until now. And not only the path, but also the budgets that constitute a real support for Pedro Sánchez’s long-term hypothesis. The socialists believe, in fact, that in both cases there is an economic margin to offer more than what María Jesús Montero’s figures reflect today, both to Catalonia and to all the communities and municipalities. Thus, the parliamentary horizon of the Executive is today somewhat different from that of just a week ago, when Junts had cancelled the examination of a proposal against real estate speculation.
They assure the PSOE that today nothing has been agreed or agreed and that, therefore, there is no certainty that the negotiations will be successful. What does exist is the real will of the government to explore all possibilities of achieving general state budgets that unblock the legislative power. And also the conviction that the only possible path is the same as always since 23J: to entertain Puigdemont even if it involves transfers and breathtaking negotiations. For now, the first winks are on the table, with the path to stability in a drawer waiting to be negotiated upwards and with the promised commissions of inquiry underway. And with another gesture from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has just asked the European Parliament for a “new impetus” for the use of Catalan, Basque and Galician in the institution, another of the commitments made with Junts.
PP will not save government accounts
Meanwhile, in public, the Government accuses the PP of reversing a path of stability that implies 12 billion euros more for the Communities and City Councils that they themselves govern. But the PP’s rejection is not due to economic reasons. Those of Alberto Núñez Feijóo will vote “no”, even if, along the way, it means that the autonomous communities and municipalities will stop receiving 12 billion. If their regional presidents, all of them, are loudly demanding greater financing and spending capacity from the government, when things come up, the barons and national leaders oppose a spending cap that means more money for all administrations.
Feijóo opened fire on Tuesday morning in an interview with Telecinco in which he said that “in Switzerland it was decided that Spain would not have, at least for the moment, budgets for the year 2025”, referring to the meetings of this end of the week between the PSOE and Junts. The PP leader regretted that of the 2.5% deficit that Brussels authorizes Spain, the government “remains” with two points, and leaves the autonomous communities and municipalities half a point.
But the PP does not expressly ask for more money for the autonomous communities and municipalities, because it does not want to enter into this negotiation. Feijóo ordered Pedro Sánchez not to seek his support and to reach an agreement with his investiture partners. He explained it more clearly shortly after his parliamentary spokesman, Miguel Tellado. “He wanted these majorities and these partners. You have what you wanted. If you don’t like the gift after opening it, you know what you have to do, return it: sign the decree and call elections,” he said.
Within the PP, there is no disagreement about rejecting the budgetary route, although the regional governments recognize that their financial situation would be much better. In fact, some barons have asked Pedro Sánchez to try to approve the 2025 budgets, but in no case with their support. Alfonso Rueda or Juan Manuel Moreno did so last Friday in Moncloa, without going any further.
The regional leaders themselves assume that it is impossible for their party to support the budgets, in the same way that in their respective territories they do not count on the PSOE, or even Vox, to vote in their favor. The barons and heads of state of the PP explain that supporting the accounts of a government is ratifying its entire political project. And this cannot be the case, even if, objectively, it can bring concrete benefits to citizens.
With the PP out of the equation no matter what, the government’s partners are also pushing for Junts to agree to support the budgetary trajectory. That same Tuesday, PNV spokesman Aitor Esteban assured in a press conference that approving the stability objective “would benefit all institutions and therefore citizens” and demanded that the Executive “try to obtain” a sufficient majority, for which Junts must be recovered.
For the PNV, there is only one solution: “A recomposition of the distribution of this deficit.” In other words, the government gives more money to the communities and, above all, to the municipalities, where Junts accumulates almost all its power in Catalonia after the last regional elections.
