A power vacuum that will be filled by more wars, with both sides trying to gain an advantage. As autumn quickly turns into winter in kyiv, this is the description heard within the Ukrainian government when referring to the current dead endwhile awaiting the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House on January 20.
“Trump has said he wants to end the war within 24 hours. No one is more interested in this idea than Ukraine,” said a senior Ukrainian government official. “The problem is that at the moment there is only conjecture, will this be the first peace plan? The second? The first variation? Number ten?
Ukraine finds itself in “a difficult situation, but not catastrophic,” specifies the same source. He has no choice but to continue fighting, perhaps to show Trump that supporting kyiv is not a losing bet, he adds.
Last week, the last minute change of heart of the current President of the United States, Joe Biden, was decisive, with the White House announcing on Sunday November 17 that the United States would authorize the use of its missile system ATACMS, with a range of 306 kilometers, against targets inside Russia.
Ukraine had been seeking authorization for years, arguing that these missiles were essential to attack barracks, airfields and logistics centers located in its enemy’s rear. “Finally, at the end of Biden’s term, the White House is more useful, but it cannot compensate for the delays of previous years,” said the senior official.
Although its casualties hovered around 1,350 per day in October (according to British estimates), Russia now has the military initiative over large areas of the Eastern Front, where it is gradually engulfing the city. from Kurákhove. “The front line is now less stable than it has ever been since the early days of the large-scale Russian invasion,” British Defense Secretary John Healey warned on Thursday.
Despite this, the White House authorization includes a restriction: the missiles can only be used for the battle being fought in the country. oblast Russian Kursk. After seizing part of the territory in August, Ukraine is trying to resist a Russian counterattack involving 50,000 soldiers, including 10,000 North Koreans from its recent ally in Pyongyang.
In any case, in Ukraine, there was not much hesitation in using the ATACMS system. A day after the American authorization, the Ukrainian army fired about eight missiles at a Russian munitions depot located about 130 kilometers from the border, according to its information.
Attention immediately focused on the United Kingdom, whose room for maneuver was limited by the reluctance of the United States. Would you now be willing to deliver more Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, with similar range and capabilities to the ATACMS systems? The United Kingdom will have to “redouble its efforts”, Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, who was in Brazil from Sunday to Wednesday for the G20 summit, only vaguely declared in Rio de Janeiro.
Between some tentative hints and more direct comments from other allies, it became clear last Monday that the UK was finally willing to supply more Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine and thus end what had been an apple of discord with kyiv.
On Wednesday, it emerged that Ukraine had fired a dozen of these missiles at a Russian command post separated from the border by more than 40 kilometers. But the United Kingdom did not want to confirm this change of position, perhaps for fear of alienating Moscow. Until a Russian blogger specializing in military topics published images of missile fragments with the words Storm Shadow on them. “Look at social media,” someone from the British Ministry of Defense finally said, acknowledging the strength of the evidence.
But two strategic missile attacks are not enough to change the course of the war. As Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, says, “the military value of both weapons has a limit: there are only a finite number of ATACMS and Storm Shadows.” .
According to Savill, the restriction imposed by the United States could end up becoming an advantage, focusing Ukraine’s attention on a smaller part of the front. On other occasions, the results obtained by Ukraine with the launch of ATACMS and Storm Shadow against the territories occupied by Russia have been spectacular, but without changing the balance of territory in favor of Ukraine. Now, Savill says, Ukraine will be able to focus on “maintaining Kursk as a constant concern,” which could be a small advantage in any peace negotiations.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quick to promise an “adequate” response. There was a nervous moment in kyiv on Wednesday, with the United States unexpectedly closing the embassy after warning of a “possible relevant air attack.” When the attack occurred, it was a surprise: a single nuclear-capable missile with an estimated range of about 5,600 kilometers. According to Russia, a factory was hit by fire in Dnipro, about 800 kilometers away. Very short range for this type of weapon.
Such a missile is too expensive to justify its use at this distance, but its launch also had a political objective, as demonstrated by the unscheduled appearance of Vladimir Putin on Russian television. “We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military installations of countries that allow their weapons to be used against our installations,” he said. The threat of war escalation was clearly directed at Trump. The war would only expand, Putin said, if the West continued to allow its missiles to reach Russia.
Beyond this missile diplomacy, the situation on the front line remains unchanged. According to Savill, this allows Russia to not be in a hurry to start peace talks, “because it can spend more lives and have the possibility of gaining another 20 or 30 kilometers.” What Putin is currently trying to do is convince Trump that much more aid to Ukraine would be too costly for the West. Few believe that the next American president will face him.
Translation of Francisco de Zárate
