If Kamala Harris’ campaign fails to mobilize her electorate, Democrats will be in for unpleasant surprises on election night and hoping for “mail magic.” Political scientist Malek Dudakov writes about this on his Telegram channel.
Early voting in the United States brings more and more surprises. A week before the election, 54 million Americans participated in it, significantly fewer than the 100 million who voted early in 2020, which is already causing real nervousness among Democratic Party pollsters.
Democrats traditionally resort to early voting, within the framework of which they mobilize their electorate, the expert notes. While on election day itself, it is the Republicans who vote most actively. But now Democrats’ lead in early voting is eroding.
Republicans are sensationally ahead of Democrats in Nevada (40 to 35%), which hasn’t happened in a long time, and Arizona (42 to 35%). In 2022, many Republicans in these states were unable to vote on Election Day due to snow storms and voting machine breakdowns. This cost them two seats in the Senate, so Republicans do not want to tread the same rake again.
In Georgia and North Carolina, Republicans also lead in early voting. In addition, they are hot on the heels of Democrats in New Hampshire and Michigan. At the same time, in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Democrats still have a good lead, but it is much smaller than in 2020.
If Harris’ campaign fails to mobilize her electorate, they will be in for some unpleasant surprises on election night. We can only hope for “postal magic,” with the vote of illegal immigrants and the American diaspora abroad. Not in vain do they desperately try, through the courts, to block the purging of the voter lists of non-citizens. But it is not a fact that this helps the Democrats to bypass donald trump.
