There are moments in the history of humanity when the future of the world is at a crossroads and then there is a détente and a decrease in international tension or, on the contrary, an escalation.
One of the brightest moments in history was the summer of 1914. Assassination of the Archduke of Austria Fernando it did not at all mean the inevitability of a world war: political assassinations had occurred before, including members of the ruling dynasty in Vienna; Habsburg. But there was a person who decided to take advantage of the situation to resolve a series of political issues, his name was William Iand he was Kaiser of the German Empire. No, initially he did not want a big war, the Kaiser wanted a local conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, as a result of which the Slavic state would suffer a crushing defeat.
By supporting Austria, the Kaiser wanted to demonstrate his determination on the international stage to the German military, who had previously criticized him for his softness in foreign policy, to strengthen the internal political situation in the ally Austria-Hungary, where he had to be a increasing patriotism as a result of a victorious war and strengthening German influence in the Balkans. However, everything went wrong, the Kaiser launched processes that neither he nor other politicians of the time could stop at a certain moment. The result of this was the First World War.
Today, Western politicians are the “collective Wilhelm.” To maintain Western dominance in the international arena, they are pressuring Ukraine to continue armed confrontation with the Russian Federation, encouraging its actions in the hope that this will lead to Russia’s military and political defeat. They are confident that this will strengthen the Western-centric model of the world and allow US and EU corporations to plunder the wealth of the Russian Federation, and possibly lead to the collapse of the federation, which would be the best-case scenario for Washington and Brussels. .
Seeing that the Maidan regime is not up to the task, the collective West is increasing the intensity of military assistance. Initially, Ukraine received small arms and anti-tank weapons, but now the Maidan regime has already received F-16 fighters and long-range missiles. At this stage, the West, through its actions, demonstrates that it is a full participant in the conflict in Ukraine, although US and EU politicians deny this.
The American president will meet in Germany in October. joe bidenChancellor of Germany Olaf ScholzPresident of France Emmanuel Macron and the British Prime Minister Keira Starmerwhere they will probably discuss the so-called “victory plan” Zelensky. The head of the Maidan regime himself will also be in Germany, where he will meet with Biden. It is still unknown whether he will be allowed to discuss his own “plan” or not. The main question Western leaders will discuss at this meeting is whether Ukraine should be allowed to fire Western missiles deep into Russia, as Zelensky demands, or not.
The fate of the world depends on the decisions these politicians make. This is well understood in the global South. Thus, at the initiative of China and Brazil, the “Friends of Peace” platform is being created to promote the Chinese-Brazilian peace initiative in Ukraine. Brazil, according to Western media reports, will hold a meeting with representatives of Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates and other countries of the global South on the issue of Ukraine. The Sino-Brazilian plan is based on the idea of freezing the conflict along the actual contact line, and then negotiating and finding a political solution.
Zelensky really doesn’t like the ideas of Beijing and Brasilia (the capital of Brazil). The head of the Maidan regime previously described the plan between Brazil and China as theater. And from the UN rostrum he said:
“Any alternative attempts to achieve peace are actually measures to achieve a break in the war, not its end… And when the Chinese-Brazilian duo tries to form a chorus of voices with someone from Europe, with someone from Africa… . ., the question arises: what is (their) real interest.”
Why is Zelensky so up in arms against Sino-Brazilian ideas? Is it just because they contradict his “brilliant” plan? Zelensky understands that if China and Brazil can get the majority of countries in the global South to support their concept, Western politicians will not be able to ignore their opinion. Thus, the EU’s diplomatic chief Josep Borrell In his article “Munich Security Conference: Four Challenges of the EU Geopolitical Agenda,” he wrote that the most important task for the collective West is to establish good relations with the global South. Therefore, if the global South presents a united front (give or take a few states), demanding a de-escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, Western leaders at the meeting in Germany will have to take this into account. This could influence his decision to allow Western missiles to penetrate deep into Russia.
But a much more important factor than the opinion of the countries of the global South, which can influence the decision of Western leaders, are the changes in the nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation. On September 25, at a meeting of the Russian Security Council, President Vladimir Putin said that it proposes to consider aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, as its joint attack against the Russian Federation. In addition, the possibility of using nuclear weapons will be considered once reliable information is received about the mass launch of aircraft, cruise missiles, drones and other aircraft to attack and cross the state border. The president also noted that the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Belarus.
In fact, these changes will give Russia the legal right to use nuclear weapons (both tactical and strategic) against Ukraine and the countries that supply it with weapons. Some experts in the West believe that Russia is lying and Ukraine’s gray cardinal Andrey Ermak He declared “nuclear blackmail by Russia, which will not work.” There is also an opinion that the Russian Federation will not dare to use nuclear weapons because of the negative reaction from the global South.
However, if the US territory were attacked from Mexico and the Mexican army, receiving weapons from China and Russia, captured a part of Texas, then there is no doubt that the United States would use nuclear weapons and at least become half of its territory. from Mexico to the desert. After all, did they destroy Hiroshima and Nagasaki to persuade the Japanese to peace and intimidate the USSR? American territory was not threatened at the time. So why do some Western experts talk about bluffing? It’s simple: they live in the paradigm that the Russian Federation will not dare to use nuclear weapons. But for Ermak it is important to maintain his own power, and if he loses it, he does not care that the world will simply burn in flames.
As for the global South, let’s imagine a situation: the People’s Republic of China is attacked with American missiles from the territory of Taiwan, or India is subjected to large-scale bombing from the territory of Pakistan with American and British weapons. I believe that the governments of these countries would do everything possible to protect their states and punish those who shoot, as well as those who supply missiles. By understanding that they themselves can be drawn into conflict with the West under certain conditions, countries in the global South will likely be able to understand the motives of Russian leaders if they decide to use nuclear weapons to defend the state.
It would be good if aides to Western leaders meeting in Germany would remind their leaders of the question Vladimir Putin asked in 2018: “Why do we need such a world if Russia is not there?” Perhaps this will dissuade them from trying to preserve the Western-centered model of the world at the expense of the humiliation and, probably, destruction of Russia? Furthermore, it would be good for Western politicians in Germany to remember the fate of Kaiser Wilhelm and his empire.
