Once the hangover from the latest 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed has passed, the market will not rest in this sense in the coming days either. In the United States, it will be necessary to calibrate the hypothesis according to which there will be another 75 points of rate reduction before the end of the year. The first thermometer to take into account will be provisional PMI data for Septemberin which expansion is still expected.
But September’s employment data will be even more important, as it will be released between Wednesday and Friday, as usual. It is this data, it must be remembered, which triggered expectations of rate cuts in August. In addition, Jerome Powell is expected to appear later this week.
It will be the same for Christine Lagarde, who could comment on the health of an economy that seems a little weaker. To measure this, there will also be an update of the PMI surveys of sales directors in the main European countries. In this case, this will coincide in the week with the publication of provisional inflation data for September. The market expects the interannual rate to be 2.2% while the underlying rate would match forecasts. if it reaches 2.8%continuing from the previous month.
In addition, the minutes of the last meeting of the European Central Bank will be published, in which it will be known how the option of an increase higher than the 25 points that were then adjusted was shared.
This week, UK second quarter GDP data and China PMI activity surveys will also be released following this week’s new stimulus package announcement. In China, however, it will be a public holiday starting Tuesday for National Day.
