The DANA which is hitting the Valencian Community and the regions of Castile-La Mancha and Andalusia this week has caused, for the moment, at least a hundred deaths, as well as unquantifiable material damage. It’s already the cold drop the most destructive in the history of Spain since there are records.
Faced with a national disaster of such magnitude, the first thing to be prescribed is the unity of the entire country, in solidarity with the victims and their families, putting aside any temptation to politically exploit the disaster. Spain will be in mourning for the next three days and all citizens should react accordingly.
But once the storm has passed, it will be time to open some debates.
It should in no case be ignored that torrential floods at this time of year have always been part of the natural reality of the Mediterranean and the southern strip of the peninsula. And at the same time we are faced with a storm which, due to its unusual nature (the result of a combination of atmospheric and orographic factors that formed a huge group of storms), has exceeded all forecasts, leaving a cumulative precipitation which reached nearly 500 liters per square meter in eight hours.
But in this conjunction of elements, with the high humidity and the strong and persistent winds from the Levant, the warmth of the Mediterranean waters plays a central role. And it is precisely climate change that has contributed to increasing sea and environmental temperatures throughout the year.
This is attested by the Project Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature of the Mediterranean Environmental Studies Center Foundation, which certifies that Over the past 40 years, the average surface temperature of the Mediterranean has increased by 1.4 degrees.
And as an analysis from the Climate Central science initiative concludes, climate change makes an increase in ocean surface temperatures between 400 and 800 times more likely, like that worsened by Hurricane Milton in the United States. In Spain, according to the sixth IPCC report, this increase in average temperature can reach three degrees Celsius.
Disasters like that of DANA, which devastated entire cities, should serve as definitive proof, both for the denialist minority and for the conformist majority, that Climate change increases the likelihood of extreme weather events. Thus, Aemet recently recalled that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation on the Mediterranean coast and in the Balearic Islands is increasing.
In addition to being a stimulus to intensify the fight against global warming, this type of event also invites us to strengthen prevention mechanisms.
Firstly, and given that weather information services produce forecasts that are always subject to a certain margin of error, Aemet must strive to refine its forecasts. And while it is reasonable for the agency to want to be cautious in its recommendations, it is legitimate to wonder whether, for future occasions, it could consider, as a matter of prudence, publishing the red notice further in advance.
This clearly shows that the problem is not so much the Aemet protocol (which had already activated the red level due to extreme weather risk on Tuesday morning) but rather the translation of these warnings into emergency alerts by the Autonomous Communities.
The slowness of this protocol was obvious When, despite the fact that the Emergency Service of the Valencian Community had already followed the recommendation of the Aemet at 8 a.m. and discouraged citizens from using the car, it was only after 8 a.m. afternoon that the mass cell phone alert was launched. Which allows us to dare that the death toll would have been lower if it had been sent with more time.
There is therefore an urgent need to improve coordination between regional and national levels.as well as between the meteorological service and the Civil Protection service, to rationalize the chain which goes from the issuance of adverse weather alerts to the activation of the alert system.
But the effectiveness of the prevention system will be limited if it does not benefit from the collaboration of citizens. Spanish society must be aware of the real risk posed by the authorities’ alerts and diligently follow their recommendations. But also know that episodes like floods will be more and more destructive, as confirmed by a study in the magazine Nature from 2018. A social catharsis is necessary to adapt our mental framework to the new climatological reality that global warming will bring.
