Trump, Trump and more Trump. If anything resonated in the trading rooms of the main American and European exchanges throughout this month is the last name of the president-elect of the United States. For Wall Street investors, the euphoria translated into buying, but not on this side of the Atlantic. There is only one session left until the end of November, and some of the main references on the continent are in negative territory in the monthly calculation, among which the Ibex 35, although it still has the possibility of recovering, since it only dropped 0.53% over the month, compared to drops of more than 1% on the Old Continent. In this way, the Spanish index opens its largest gap – in favor – with respect to Europe of the year, a distance of 10 percentage points. And the European index, the EuroStoxx 50, is experiencing an annual increase of 5%, compared to the triple, 15%, accumulated by the Spanish stock market.
This month It has not been easy for any of the European stock marketsAlthough not the most bearish benchmark on a monthly basis, the EuroStoxx 50 fell 1.4% over this period. THE red lanterns On this side of the Atlantic, these are the Italian FTSE Mib and the French Cac 40: the Milan stock exchange lost 3% in the monthly balance, while the Parisian benchmark corrected 2.3%. But before bleeding Among these selectives, the British FTSE 100 index shines on the stock market, up 2.1% this month, which found a booster during the Republican’s second term, attracting investors to its shores. The German Dax also joined the increases, recording 1.8% in November, unlike its counterparts within the European Union.
Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris is almost complete direction for the stock prices of the Old Continent, despite the economic results or the rise in geopolitical tensions at the gates of Europe with new attacks from Russia and Ukraine. And the 47th President of the United States has darkened the prospects of European companies in the face of the business tycoon’s promises of a higher pricing policy, to his ideas of more unilateral international relations, seen as worrying signs for Europe’s economic future. The New Yorker aims to reactivate industrial production in your countryand one of the main measures is to increase taxes paid on products imported from its trading allies.
And this week, Trump announced that his first action upon arriving at the Oval Office of the White House will be to impose customs duties of 25% on all items originating from its neighbors, Mexico and Canada, highlighted in capital letters in an announcement from its social network, Truth Social. China is not spared either, and the future president is also talking about a 10% customs duty on its products. Even though Europe was not yet on this list, investors responded with selling, fearing that this could happen again for the continent as well.
In this context, the sectors of the European stock market benchmark, the Stoxx 600, which we see most penalized by Trump’s tariff policies have reacted with declines, namely automobiles and automobiles. retail. Over the month, automakers lost 4.8%, while retail companies as a whole fell 2%. Holly Froum, analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, explains that now these taxes “could lead to increased costs for electric vehicle makers such as Volvo and Polestar and clothing makers Nike and Adidas,” as they “will likely face additional tariffs now that Donald Trump returns to the White House.” “Trump has said he intends to impose tariffs customs of 10 to 20% on most imports and 60% on China. , which could affect companies like Nike and Adidas, which acquire 18% and 14% of their shoes in the Asian country,” explains the Bloomberg analyst.
With one page left on the calendar until the end of the year, the German Dax is crowned the most bullish stock of the year, with a rise of 15.9% in 2024. Meanwhile, the Ibex, who again gave up his position. month, it achieves an increase of 15%, as mentioned above, proving that he is no longer the ugly duckling of Europe on the stock market.
The Italian stock market is close to an increase of 9.6% in its annual balance, followed by the British stock market, which adds 7% to its price. The EuroStoxx 50 rose 5.3% over the year, lagging behind European indices. But if the year ended today, the Cac 40 is undoubtedly the one that performed the least well this year. The French index fell 4.8% compared to levels at the start of the year, now affected by political uncertainty around the Paris Assembly and which promises curves due to the possibility of a change of government.
On the other side of the Atlantic
Wall Street plunged into celebration after knowing the winner of the polls, commonly known as the gathering of trumps, which has led the main benchmarks of the country to renew and establish new high levels in their entire history, even if the most favored stock markets are not those with large capitalization on a monthly basis. Please note that this Thursday the trading rooms are closed for the Thanksgiving celebration, and on Friday they will only open for half a session. In the absence of this half-session, the Russell 2000the index of small capitals The American is the most bullish of the month, up 10.5% in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones industrial index has outperformed its peers this month and is up 7% over the same period, causing it to trade above 44,720 points. Investors have chosen to increase their exposure to these two indices given the growth forecasts announced by the market, taking into account the Republican objective of revitalizing American industry.
For the S&P 500, this bullish streak meant not only hitting the desired psychological barrier of 6,000 points, but also surpass these levels and mark their new highs above at 6,021 points. The benchmark of the 500 largest companies in the United States increases by 5% in the monthly balance, if it closes like this it would be its second best month so far in 2024, behind the 5.8% obtained in February. On an annual basis, the index increases by 25.8%, which creates a a gap five times greater than the main reference of the Old Continent, the Stoxx 600.
The Nasdaq 100, for its part, has gained 4.3% so far in November, although it was affected in the final moments of the month by the fall of its technology companies. At the annual level, we are not very far from the rise in the S&P, since in 2024 an increase of 23% is recorded, while it is around 20,740 points, or less than 2% of its historical highs: 21.1117 points.
Even if all is not rosy for Wall Street, health care companies have seen the consequences on their prices of the choice of Robert Kennedy Jr. as health secretary in the Trump cabinet, an outspoken anti-vaccine and hateful of the pharmaceutical industry. The sectors of medical centers and biotechnology They are the most bearish at the monthly level of the S&P 500, losing 8% in November due to investors’ fears that it limits the evolution of a sector which represents 17% of the American economy, according to economist Tyler Cowen.
The euro against the dollar
Trump’s victory also led to a strengthening of the US dollar, given the prospects of a higher inflation in the region as the president returns to the White House. Many of the policies championed by the Republican are linked to increased inflation, such as tariffs, as well as expansionary policies, such as an across-the-board tax cut. During the month, the Eurodollar exchange rate It fell 4.3%, falling below $1.04.levels not seen for two years, despite starting the month at 1.08 green billsin favor of the European currency. In this context, some analysts predict that parity will become a reality for the two currencies.
