In the worst scenario envisaged by scientists in terms of climate change, the Balearic Islands would no longer have a Mediterranean climate and would move to another arid climate. similar to what the Karoo Desert, Sonoran Desert or Atacama Desert currently have. According to scientists’ estimates, this will happen before the end of the century if current greenhouse gas emissions continue.
This was explained to Parliament on Thursday by the head of the Plant Production Department of the Agri-Food and Fisheries Research and Training Institute of the Balearic Islands (Irfap), Maria del Carme Garau. The doctor in Agricultural Engineering gave her explanations to the Non-Permanent Commission on the Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, held Thursday in Parliament.
Garau went to the headquarters of Parliament to explain the different projects that the institute is developing to adapt agriculture to the new climatic realities that could arise in the years to come.
During his presentation, he highlighted the different scenarios that the archipelago could face for the rest of the century, depending on the evolution of climate change.
Garau indicated that the scientific community is working with four possible climate change scenarios and that in the case of the Balearic Islands this would be between CO2 emissions of 421 parts per million (ppm) in 2100 – the “most optimistic” scenario – and 936 ppm. . of CO2 – the most “pessimistic” -.
This would lead to an increase in average maximum temperatures throughout the year, which are currently 23ºC, and if the mentioned pessimistic scenario comes true, Average maximum temperatures would rise to 26.4ºC.
The other factor that has been used to compare this climate change is that of precipitation, which currently amounts to 1.25 mm of rain per day and In 2100, it would fall to 0.82 mm per day.
Garau thus underlined that with these parameters, the Balearic Islands would go from a Mediterranean climate to an arid climate. between the years 2050 and 2100.
Climate change and cultures
For these reasons, it has highlighted the need to adapt crops to this new climatic reality with varieties that require less water, fewer hours of cold for their flowering or that can withstand longer periods of drought , what Irfap is working on with different projects.
Thus, he emphasized that scientists work with species that have different thresholds of tolerance to climate change, fundamentally with indigenous variants since they are already adapted to the climatic conditions of the Mediterranean and can present greater resilience.
Other conditions that plants will face in future climate change scenarios will be a greater solar radiation, greater exposure to hurricane-force winds or altered flowering phenology.
All this has already highlighted that this is already affecting almond production –also due to the reduction in the number of pollinators– and an imbalance in the acidity and sugar of the vines.
Garau said one of the strategies could also involve the relocation of agriculture, which he said is already happening in other parts of Europe since French winemakers are already trying to plant vineyards in the south of England – a culture that had not yet been realized. been possible in this area – to produce their wines and champagnes.
In this sense, he showed a map of the areas of Mallorca where cultivation of fruit trees currently since they are crops that require many hours of cold for their subsequent flowering.
From the image it can be seen that this type of plants could be planted almost throughout the island, except in the coastal areas due to their mild temperatures. However, showing the map of the pessimistic scenario of 2100, these crops would maintain a very small space in the Serra de Tramuntana.
The agronomist also stressed that the future of irrigated crops in the Balearics must pass through regenerated water, but she demanded support for research and improvement of purification systems, since this water is generally responsible for biological materials, high salinity and heavy metals.
At the same time, he demanded that the primary sector commit to high crop variability so that in the event of a pest infestation it has more alternatives.
The data proposed by Maria del Carme Garau complements what was also recently explained in Parliament by the researcher from the Spanish Institute of Oceanography and the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB). Gabriel Jordan. He warned during his appearance that due to rising sea levels, Island beaches will have lost up to 50% of their surface area by the end of the century and that storm periods will have increased by 80%. Jordà added that, according to studies carried out, in 2040 the sea level will have already risen between 10 and 15 centimeters, “which would imply on average between five and ten meters less surface area on the beaches of the Balearic Islands”.
In fact, the oceanographer affirmed that, without the Posidonia meadows, the extreme sea level in the Balearics would increase by around 80 cm on average, which would “double the impact of storms” on the coasts of the archipelago. . .
