More than six million Austrians are called to the polls this Sunday, during legislative elections marked by the advance of the ultranationalist party FPÖthe favorite in the polls.
If the forecasts are confirmed, This would be the first time that the FPÖ won a legislative election at the national levelone of the oldest far-right groups in Europe, founded in the 1950s by former Nazi officers.
Led by former Interior Minister Herbert Kicklthe party ultra, anti-immigration, pro-Russian and eurosceptichas been leading voting intentions “very solidly” for more than a year, explains political scientist Thomas Hofer to a group of journalists, including EFE.
Remember that Kickl was able to monopolize the growing discontent of the electorate with the conservative and green government, weighed down by internal tensions and controversial management of multiple crises, from the pandemic to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. by starvation.
For months now, Polls give first place to the FPÖ with 26-28%, followed by the ruling and conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) of Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer (25%) and the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPÖ, 20-21%).
Fourth place is contested by the liberal Neos (9-12%) and the Greens (ecologists, 8-10%).
With little chance of surpassing the 4% threshold required to enter parliament, the Communists and the anti-establishment Beer Party are also in competition.
In the European elections of June 9, considered in Austria as a dress rehearsal for tomorrow’s legislative elections, the FPÖ, although was the most voted, with 25.5%below forecasts, very close to the ÖVP (24.7%).
“This time we will do it, we will get first place”declared the day before the leader of the FPÖ, Herbert Kickl, closing his campaign during a rally organized on Saint-Etienne’s Square, in front of the homonymous and emblematic cathedral of Vienna.
Although the ultras have already been part of a government in the past, they have always done so in alliance with the People’s Party as second coalition partner, while now it would be their turn, according to tradition, to lead the executive.
From this perspective, Kickl is convinced that will be the next ‘Volkskanzler’ (people’s chancellor), a controversial term due to its history: it is the same term used by the National Socialists to designate Adolf Hitler.
The hope of the conservatives
But the ultra leader has a problem: all the other parties exclude any alliance with him and as there is no indication that he will obtain an absolute majority, we do not know with whom he could agree on a coalition to come to power.
Furthermore, the gap between the FPÖ and the ÖVP has narrowed in recent weeks, according to the latest polls.
Analysts say the current head of government and his party have benefited from their handling of the recent natural disaster caused by Cyclone Boris in eastern Austria, while the ultras, opposed to measures to mitigate the change climate, lost a point in intention. of the vote.
Closing his campaign at a rally in Vienna, Nehammer expressed hope on Friday that the ÖVP will be able to catch up with, or even overtake, the FPÖ, and reiterated his categorical refusal to accept Kickl’s participation in a common government, even if he left open the possibility of an alliance with the ultras without their leader.
“We do not exclude in advance any party present in Parliament but I have clarified with whom it would not be possible to form a responsible and lasting government. The current leader of the FPÖ does not meet these criteria, which is why I exclude him.”said the chancellor.
For his part, Andreas Babler, leader of the social-democratic SPÖ (third in the polls), concluded his campaign in Vienna on Saturday by soliciting the vote of those who would like to prevent the rise to power of the extreme right, by highlighting its absolute position. refusal to conclude an agreement with the FPÖ.
“We are a firewall against anything that endangers this democratic republic,” Babler forcefully declared before thousands of supporters.
According to local analysts, an extremis victory for the ÖVP makes a coalition between the ÖVP and the FPÖ more likelysince it would be easier for him to demand that Kickl not be part of the executive.
On the other hand, a narrow victory for the FPÖ could result in a tripartite coalition of the ÖVP with the SPÖ and the NEOS.
