Russia launched this Thursday a brutal air attack on a large number of Ukrainian energy infrastructurethe eleventh of this size so far this year. Even if the border between civil and military is blurred in any war, it escapes no one that this massive bombings aim to demoralize the Ukrainian population and condemn it to cold and fear in what will be the third full winter of conflict, the fourth if we count the days of February and March 2022.
The repair work is expected to be long and expensive. 70 percent of homes will be without electricity for at least twelve hours, while minimum temperatures already reach five or even ten below zero in some parts of the country. Putin feels that if the Ukrainian army does not surrender, its citizens may well do so. This attack and previous ones They intend to plunge the people into anguish to see if anyone is mobilizing against Zelensky’s government and demanding negotiations that actually hide capitulation.
This Wednesday, Sergei Sarishkindirector of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, once again made it clear, in the face of propagandists trying to sell the opposite, that the Kremlin would not accept anything through a peace agreement that he does not believe can be obtained by force. 99% of Lugansk is already in their hands, along with 65% of Donetsk, and progress is greater than at any other time in the war except during the initial offensive from February to June 2022. That said, according to If we study the war, even maintaining the current pace, which remains to be seen, it would still take a year for Russian troops to capture the entire region.
This is the reason why Putin insists on punishing civilians: There is no faster way to end the war. Nuclear threats may deter third countries, but they do not affect Ukraine, which endangers its existence as a state anyway. The Kremlin needs a moral capitulation before imposing a military capitulation; he cannot do the opposite unless he wants to lose another half a million men dead and wounded. It will be up to the Europeans and the Americans to help in every possible way to restore electricity throughout the country… and to send, as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has already said, sophisticated anti-aircraft systems to prevent this type of bombing.
Putin’s justification
It is precisely the involvement of the West in favor of Ukraine which once again served the Russian president to excuse his barbarities. According to Putin, Thursday’s attack was a response to using ATACMS Americans through Ukraine in the Kursk region. “No provocation will go unanswered,” said the autocrat without specifying what exactly was the provocation that justified the ten previous attacks or, to begin with, the invasion of February 2022.
Putin must be worried for several reasons: launch of the Oreshnik hypersonic missile This initially shocked the international community, but gradually the reaction was one of unity and commitment. NATO met with the Ukrainian ambassador in Warsaw and there was no disagreement. The Kremlin’s great hope has always been Donald Trump, a personal friend of Putin, and the promise of “ending the war in 24 hours” rests much of Moscow’s aspirations.
asset and the Republican wing closest to the MAGA movement – if the two things can be distinguished at present – opposed the delivery of weapons to Ukraine and the financing of its war without receiving anything in return . Part of the reason is sentimental – Trump feels much closer to Putin than to Zelensky, who once cost him an attempt to “indictment» in 2019- and in part, clearly economic. This is where most voters take a stand: They don’t understand why they have to spend millions of dollars on a conflict that apparently doesn’t concern them.
The Hopeful Appointment of General Kellogg
However, the practical steps taken by Trump to shape his future administration, particularly in matters of foreign affairs, are confusing in this regard. From the start, his silence in the face of Biden’s decision is surprising to authorize long-range missile attacks against military targets on Russian soil after almost three years. Considering that Biden met with the president-elect a few hours before announcing the measure and that Trump is not one to keep silent about his displeasure, it is possible that this is a strategy consensual to send the message to Putin that this will not all be so easy for you.
Also Appointment of retired general Keith Kellogg sparks optimism in kyiv as US special envoy to Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg, who was already national security adviser to Vice President Mike Pence during Trump’s first term, has always been in favor of helping Ukraine in its fight or, at least, not simply abandoning it . Indeed, in an interview given to American television in March 2022, after a visit to the surroundings of Bucha and horrified by what he saw, Kellogg He declared that “the end of the war will come when Ukraine expels Russia from its territory” and praised the firmness with which the country threw itself into combat instead of accepting capitulation.
He is therefore an experienced man and supporter of a just peace. Kellogg is 80 years old and his military training will have focused on examining Soviet behavior for much of his career. The fact that Trump did not choose a fanatic in his vice-president JD Vance is an excellent sign and seems to reaffirm the Atlantic pact so feared – and rightly so – in recent weeks. There are less than two months left for the transfer of power and everyone expects rapid and decisive action from Trump in Ukraine. He promised it and now he will have to keep it. It remains to be seen how and to whom this benefits or harms.
