President-elect Donald Trump could begin his new term with policies remarkably similar to Joe Biden’s approach to Ukraine. Despite criticizing his predecessor’s foreign policy, Trump is likely to maintain key elements such as financial and military aid to kyiv. However, experts do not rule out a reduction in the volume of support or a change in its structure, which could become a signal for Russia.
Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to improve relations with Vladimir Putin, raising concerns among Ukraine’s allies. At the same time, dramatic changes in American policy are unlikely due to pressure from Congress, allies and its own bureaucracy. Analysts believe that the strong inertia of American foreign policy can preserve the main elements of support for Ukraine, especially in the context of the ongoing conflict.
Continuities and differences in foreign policy
Despite significant differences in their views on international relations, Trump and Biden have more in common than first appears. Biden has maintained a number of decisions made by Trump, including tough policies toward China, Iran and Venezuela. Analysts believe that Trump, in turn, will continue Biden’s course in several directions.
Regarding Saudi Arabia, for example, Biden initially promised to isolate the kingdom for human rights abuses, but later resumed military cooperation. Trump is likely to continue this line, focusing on regional security and strengthening Saudi Arabia’s ties with Israel.
China and Taiwan
US policy towards China, begun under Trump, has been continued by Biden and includes tough measures against Chinese technology and a military presence in Asia. However, uncertainty remains over the Taiwan question. Biden has openly expressed his willingness to defend the island from Chinese aggression, while Trump’s position is more ambiguous. Some of his potential advisors, such as Marco Rubio, advocate an active defense of Taiwan.
Iran and the Middle East
As for Iran, Trump can return to a “maximum pressure” strategy while maintaining sanctions that Biden has not lifted. At the same time, attempts at negotiation are possible, which was already part of Trump’s policy in his first term. In Israel, Trump is likely to continue his policy of full trust in Benjamin Netanyahu, but is unlikely to take radical steps that could undermine the prospects for diplomacy, such as the annexation of the West Bank.
Europe and NATO
One of the main intrigues remains Trump’s possible attitude towards NATO. Although he criticized the alliance and threatened to abandon it, European diplomats consider such measures unlikely. Policy continuity is also key here, despite Trump’s rhetoric about “global alliances dragging America down.”
Latin America and Cuba
Biden’s policies on Cuba and Venezuela have remained largely unchanged since the Trump era. The sanctions against Venezuela and Cuba imposed by Trump remain in force. Analysts do not expect major changes in the event of a second Trump term.
In short: continuity is stronger than differences
Although Trump and Biden’s rhetoric differ significantly, the inertia of American foreign policy and the influence of bureaucracy often minimize radical change. In relations with Ukraine, China and Iran, the new administration will most likely continue key elements of the course started by its predecessors. However, we can expect more aggressive moves and unexpected decisions from Trump, especially as he seeks to advance his own ambitions on the world stage.
