When US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in New York on Friday that the next few days would determine the future of the Middle East, he could not have been more prescient, although he surely hoped at the time that Hezbollah and Israel withdraw. from the edge of the abyss.
Today, with the death of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah, the region, after 11 months, has crossed the threshold and finds itself in a situation where it has never been.
All eyes will be on Tehran’s response. He finds himself faced with the fateful choice that he has always tried to avoid and that his new reformist leaders, in particular, have not wished to make.
Whether he simply angrily condemns Israel for destroying the centerpiece of the axis of resistance it has built over so many years, or whether he calls on others to take non-specific measures, the credibility of Iran is in danger.
But pragmatism could lead Iran to advise Hezbollah to assume losses and accept a ceasefire that does not go hand in hand with a ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah’s declared objective.
If, on the other hand, Iran launches military reprisals against Israel, they will have to be significant. It knows that it will enter combat against an army that has demonstrated the lethal value of its vastly superior technological and intelligence capabilities. Israeli intelligence has clearly reached inside Hezbollah and may have done the same in Tehran.
For new President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected with the aim of lifting economic sanctions and improving relations with the West, Nasrallah’s death could not have come at a worse time.
His Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sayeed Abbas Araghchi, had just spent an entire week in New York, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, to meet European politicians, such as German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and the British Foreign Minister David Lammy, during a press conference. try to persuade them to reopen negotiations to restore the nuclear agreement sealed in 2015 – and which Donald Trump broke in 2018.
Rafael Grossi, head of the UN nuclear inspectorate, was impressed by what he heard at the meetings: “I think this is the moment when it is possible to do something on the nuclear issue. The advantage of Mr. Araghchi is that he knows everything about this process, which allows him to move forward more quickly. Nasrallah’s assassination makes it even more difficult for reformers to convince the Iranian military that an olive branch still makes sense.
Pezeshkian previously complained that he received little in return for listening to Western-inspired calls not to seek immediate revenge for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader killed by Israel in Tehran.
Pezeshkian said he had been promised that within a week or two a ceasefire agreement would be reached in Gaza that would allow the release of Palestinian hostages and political prisoners. The agreement never materialized because, in Iran’s eyes, the United States refused to exert the necessary pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the terms of the ceasefire.
Once defrauded, Pezeshkian is unlikely to believe American assurances that he had no prior knowledge of the plot to kill Nasrallah and that Netanyahu could have approved his death from a New York hotel room anyway , but it was bombs supplied by the United States that exploded. in Beirut.
In what is likely a declaration of containment, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday called on Muslims “to support the Lebanese people and proud Hezbollah with all means at their disposal and to help them confront the … evil regime”. [de Israel]”.
For Washington, this is a diplomatic humiliation and a sign of its inability, or refusal, to control its problematic ally.
Netanyahu says he took American diplomats in New York for fools. The US State Department insists it had a clear understanding, based on conversations with Ron Dermer, Israel’s minister of strategic affairs, and Netanyahu, that Israel would agree to a 21-day ceasefire, but as soon as the plan was announced, Netanyahu backtracked on the deal.
In a way, it is the culmination of nearly 12 months of an American strategy now in ruins. Since the October 7 Hamas attacks, the United States has repeatedly called on Israel to adopt a different strategy regarding food deliveries to Gaza, buffer zones, a ground offensive in Rafah, terms of a ceasefire -fire and above all. , to avoid escalation of the conflict.
Each time, Netanyahu acknowledged the American position, evaded a clear response and ultimately ignored Washington. At every opportunity, the United States – angry and frustrated – expressed doubts about Netanyahu’s strategy, but at every opportunity it continued to provide ammunition.
As the presidential election approaches and Netanyahu enjoys a surge in national popularity – and the few Arab states shed tears over Nasrallah’s passing – the United States appears to have few options available. Netanyahu insists he is winning and on his way to complete victory.
For the moment, unless Iran proves more decisive than it has been so far, it is Netanyahu, the great survivor, who takes the lead.
