HAS the end of the prologue of his famous book Collapse (Folio, 2009), American biologist and geographer Jared Diamond explains the underlying reasons for his interest in the disappearance of ancient civilizations. “In a way unprecedented in history, we are at risk of global decline. But we are also the first to be able to quickly learn lessons from events happening today in all parts of the world, as well as from what has happened to any other society in the past.”he writes before describing the end of the Mayans, the builders of the statues on Easter Island or the Viking colonies in Greenland.
Listen to survive better? This intellectual ambition also perfectly sums up the difficult task of the United Nations Climate Conferences of the Parties (COPs). Every year, the 197 countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have more and more scientific literature at their disposal. Every year, negotiators can read United Nations (UN) reports on slow policy implementation. Every year they measure the distance to travel and the mass of issues to resolve in two weeks.
In Baku, Azerbaijan, during COP29, diplomats and ministers kept up appearances. On Sunday, November 24, late at night, they managed to agree on the main text of this conference. By 2035, developed countries will have to provide $300 billion (€284.71 billion) in aid to developing countries each year. The latter considered this sum insignificant. Their needs to address the impacts and finance their energy transition run into the trillions.
Confidence bewildered
The mixed epilogue of this COP must be placed in a broader context, on a highway that goes from Dubai to Belem (Brazil). In 2023, COP28 in the United Arab Emirates set an ambition, the “Transition away from fossil fuels”. The 2025 in Brazil will arrive ten years after the adoption of the Paris agreement and must be the place to strengthen the climate policies of the States to maintain the slim hope of containing warming to less than 1.5°C.
Baku has added obstacles to this already tortuous path. Because COP29 has further damaged trust between the parties. Many developing countries see climate finance as “repairing” a “climate debt” of the North, as rich countries have revved up the engine of their growth by emitting the vast majority of greenhouse gases since 1850. Polluters must pay, repeats the leaders of African states or islands threatened by rising water levels. According to developing countries, these billions are also the only way to implement Dubai’s words.
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