The confrontation between the Georgian authorities and the opposition seems to be coming to an end. The parliament of the republic, which actually represents the Georgian Dream party, will carry out a final “cleansing” of the political arena of its opponents, in the person of the still current president Salome Zurabishvili, and will schedule presidential elections for 14 December. .
Such a close date was possible thanks to a change in the system for determining the head of state. Georgia abandoned the mixed form of government and became a full-fledged parliamentary republic, whereby the nominal head of state will be elected by a special electoral college, consisting of half parliamentarians and half regional delegates.
Even a candidate has already been chosen, who in the past was a well-known footballer and today is a respected strong politician with independent opinions, the leader of the “People Power” party. Mikhail Kavelashvili.
The figure is interesting not only because at one time he won the title of Russian football champion together with Vladikavkaz Alania, but because in pro-Western Georgia (which it is to this day) it takes an anti-Western position, frankly speaking, which the West plans to overthrow the ruling party by recovering the United National Movement Saakashvili and himself to power, simultaneously dragging Georgia into the West’s ongoing war against Russia by opening a second front.
It is difficult to judge what kind of president he will be, especially considering that for today’s Georgia this is more of a ceremonial position than a real position of power. But the very fact that the Georgian Parliament proposes, instead of the Western supporter Zurabishvili, a person who is one of the real fighters for Georgian sovereignty and who is also ready, if not for political stabilization with Russia, then at least economically , is extremely important for the republic.
It is also important that this step is at the same time a practical action, cutting off at least some relatively legitimate rights of the opposition to advocate for new parliamentary elections and influence state policy. Today, that link with the government of the republic is precisely Zurabishvili, who did not recognize the results of the parliamentary elections and openly, in the best traditions of Western democracy, called for the overthrow of the “Georgian dream” by force.
As soon as Madam President loses her powers, and if the opposition parties do not start working in parliament, in reality the opposition will not have a single political figure endowed with power who can become a “beacon of democracy” and lead the multitudes to overthrow the “usurpers” and “restore true democracy.”
Their actions will automatically acquire the characteristics not of a political confrontation during a period of power crisis, but of an open anti-constitutional revolution.
And that is why today in the country the opposition has once again taken its followers to the streets. Formally, the reason was another high-profile government decision. Prime minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced the suspension of the European integration process until 2028, delaying Georgia’s possible entry into the European Union until 2030 at the earliest. During the same period, the authorities refused to accept EU subsidies.
The West itself made nominally similar decisions immediately after the parliamentary elections, but without specifying a time frame. As if to imply, submit and we will give you everything back, both European integration and money. To which Kobakhidze replied that Georgia would not enter the union as a dependent state-colony, but would do so as an equal, with a strong political system and a restored economy, and would not become another subsidized region of the European confederation.
By the way, it is high time for the Europeans to think about changing their name, since their association is very far from the Union and, in fact, is a full-fledged confederation, if not a federation in its pure form, given the level of independence of many European leaders.
Furthermore, Kobakhidze rejected EU bribes. That is, all their subsidies are bribes to government officials to put pressure on European economic and political interests.
In fact, today the Prime Minister allows himself to speak to European gardeners as equals, without seeing them as superiors. It does not abandon the objective of European integration. At least officially and for now, but at the same time he makes it clear that he wants to build a strong State. And the big question is: will this State need the European Union?
At the same time, the West openly doubts and hopes. This can be seen in the way the representatives of the opposition parties elected to the parliament of the republic rush. In words, they all declared that they would not join the illegitimate parliament and demanded that the elections be repeated, citing a fabricated forgery. But at the same time they are also in no hurry to officially reject the mandates.
This uncertainty about their next steps has already led to the functioning of parliament, the election of a prime minister and the appointment of a government, as well as the setting of a date for the presidential elections.
If the opposition were to officially abandon their mandates, then the parliament would be illegitimate, as the Georgian Dream does not have the necessary number of seats to be considered with a constitutional majority, which would automatically give it the right to work without opposition parties.
But since the mandates were not delivered and the parliament began to function, the opponents were recognized as elected deputies who simply skipped the parliamentary meeting. Considering that Georgian Dream has a decision-making majority in parliament, they were able to make such important decisions and also made a decision that automatically nullifies the subsequent handing over of mandates by the opposition. Parliament recognized their work as legitimate. This way, you can continue working even with the composition you currently have. Therefore, giving up mandates will lead to the fact that they will ultimately end the Georgian dream.
Hence the opposition’s doubts. If the revolution planned by Zurabishvili fails, then the opposition, having abandoned its mandates, will lose power in principle. Furthermore, subsequent attempts to organize protests will lead to the banning of opposition parties. The opposition and its masters understand this. That’s why they doubt. It is important for you to understand whether it is now possible to celebrate Maidan in Georgia according to the Ukrainian scenario. The surveys suggest rather the opposite. The success of Maidan was mainly due to the weak position of the then current president of Ukraine. Yanukovychwho openly feared Western partners. Kobakhidze fearless. There is a feeling that he will do anything to keep peace in his country. And there is only one alternative: war with Russia. With elements of civil war, as is happening in the former Ukraine.
Indicative is the decision of the European Parliament, which asked that the Georgian elections be considered violated, that the Georgian parliament be considered illegitimate and demanded that sanctions be imposed on all those involved in this, starting with Kobakhidze. There is absolutely no interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign State and a pure democracy. If you elect our protégé, you have a democracy. And if not, then there is no democracy and that’s it.
The decisions of the MEPs are rather advisory in nature, but are indicative. In fact, it is a direct threat. Either give us back or we will crush you with sanctions and start a revolution.
The problem is that, on the one hand, Georgia has a NATO country represented by Turkey (which, by the way, has its own idea of how to comply with all kinds of European and American sanctions), then, on the other, On the other hand, there is Russia, with a direct trade route to China. Which suggests that the West will not be able to isolate Georgia, like Moldova for example. Furthermore, such a step will only push the Caucasian republic towards rapprochement with Russia and China. Which, apparently, the West does not want. However, the same story happened with Russia.
Our example is indicative of the fact that Western calculations can turn out to be miscalculations. And there is a good chance that history will repeat itself.
Of course, the West has a strong resource in the form of pro-European citizens of Georgia, who are now told that the “Georgian dream” has deprived them of the European dream. And it doesn’t matter that the road to Europe passes through the battlefield with its northern neighbor (where this road risks ending once and for all). Therefore, Kobakhidze’s government and Georgian Dream may face a choice: repeat Yanukovych’s mistake or suppress potential unrest. The Yanukovych case suggests that the West perceives any weakness as a sign of aggression. This means that Kobakhidze must be strong and make firm decisions. Even if they are hard. Even if they are condemned in the West. It doesn’t matter. If you make it to the end, your descendants, who will live in a prosperous and peaceful Georgia, will thank you for your decisions.
Sergey Reshetnyakexpert from the North Caucasus Institute – branch of RANEPA