The two major center-right parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin, the most left-wing nationalist party, are almost tied in the Irish elections this Friday, according to the results of the polls at the close of the electoral colleges . In this scenario, the two main center-right parties are expected to form a new coalition again with the support of a smaller group.
According to data from the Ipsos poll by Irish public broadcaster RTE, the newspaper Irish Times and other outlets, Sinn Féin and Fine Gael, under current Prime Minister Simon Harris, will get around 20% of the vote and Fianna Fáil around 19%.
Sinn Féin, the most left-wing nationalist party, could come out on top in percentage of votes, which was unexpected due to several internal scandals that have affected Mary Lou McDonald’s leadership in recent weeks. In the 2020 election, Sinn Féin won for the first time in number of votes (but not in number of seats and did not have a sufficient parliamentary majority to govern).
Fianna Fáil is the longest-ruling nationalist party since Irish independence and, with these estimated results, is expected to remain in power following coalition negotiations.
A long review
The final result of the elections is not expected until Sunday evening or Monday morning given the complexity of the Irish voting system which lengthens the counting, which does not begin until this Saturday morning.
Irish people vote in each constituency with what is known as the “single transferable vote”. This means that the voter chooses candidates in order of preference in constituencies where between three and five deputies are elected. To win a seat, a candidate must meet a threshold that varies according to a formula in each constituency. The counting is done in several rounds: first the main preferences are counted, and if a candidate exceeds the threshold, the rest of his votes are redistributed according to the other preferences indicated by the voter. If no candidate reaches the threshold, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are transferred to the others. This process is repeated until all seats are allocated in an attempt to minimize “waste” of votes. But with so many rounds, the final election result will take several days to be known. This year, moreover, there were up to twenty candidates in each constituency due to the proliferation of so-called independent left and right parties (including the extremes).
The coalition
With weeks of negotiations remaining, the most likely coalition is that of the major center-right parties, with some nuances. “Whether they have the support of the Greens or not is different. There can be different supports, say from outside a small party that comes here or a group of independents,” Michele Crepaz, a political scientist at Queen’s University in Belfast, Northern Ireland, told elDiario.es. comprehensive data on public policies across the island. “They will have to be moderate independents. “We are not talking about those who are more at the extreme end of the political spectrum.”
Ireland already has several parties that can be described as far-right because of their immigration policy and their inspiration – even direct slogans – from Donald Trump, but none has consolidated around a leader.
Liz Carolan, a journalist specializing in politics and technology, explains to elDiario.es that some of these far-right candidates began their careers as “influencersThus, “their campaigns are an extension of their existing online presence”, often based on videos of confrontations with politicians or linked to migrants.
Rich countries and Trump risk
Ireland is today one of the richest countries in Europe, thanks in part to the presence of multinationals from the United States and elsewhere who have settled there because of the language and lower taxes.
But the most debated challenge between the major parties is how to now manage the risk that part of this sector could be at risk if the new Trump administration imposes more barriers to trade.
In a country of just over five million people, nearly 1,000 US companies employ nearly 400,000 people in Ireland and lose around €41 billion each year, according to Chamber of Commerce data. Political scientist Crepaz highlights the message now being sent by Irish politicians: “If Trump closes the door to trade, then we have a problem and we have to take it into account. »
