The leftist Sinn Féin of Mary Lou McDonald obtained 21.1% of the votes in the legislative elections held this Friday in Ireland, compared to 21% of the Good Gael of the prime minister, Simon Harrisand 19.5% of centrists Fianna Fail of Michael Martinaccording to an exit poll.
The investigation published by the public channel RTE confirms the equality of the three major parties and opens the possibility for the centrists and the Christian Democrats to repeat the historic government coalition of the last four years, into which the Greens also entered, who now obtain 4%. .
He the countdown will begin this Saturday and the first provisional results could be known by mid-afternoon, which will give an idea of the number of seats the parties will obtain depending on the transfer of votes between candidates, as allowed by the complex Irish electoral system .
Harris has already warned today that “several fascinating days” await us, recalling that the aforementioned poll could indicate the party with the most votes, which does not mean, she clarified, that it will obtain more seats in the Lower House. (Dáil), composed of 174 deputies.
This is what happened to Sinn Féin and opposition leader Mary Lou McDonald, who won the popular vote in 2020, but found herself one seat behind Fianna Fáil after the popular vote. voice transfer.
The failure of the nationalist leader to form a government gave rise to the historic coalition between centrists and Christian Democrats, rivals since the civil war (1922-1923), who have since shared power.
“Compare this with the British system. Big Ben’s clock strikes 10 o’clock.” SkyNews says who won. Our system is different”, celebrated the taoiseach (Prime Minister) as he voted early this morning in his constituency in County Wicklow, south of Dublin.
technical tie
The latest polls gave the three parties support of around 20%, a technical tie caused by the decline in popularity of Harris – until recently favorite -, the return of McDonald and the stability of Martin, deputy prime minister and taoiseach between 2020 and 2022.
It is for this reason that Martin declared himself this Friday “cautiously optimistic” on his chances of victory, given that he is the most popular candidate when it comes to receiving transfers of votes from other parties and candidates, to the point that even the Christian Democrats, internally, give him as favorite.
For his part, McDonald also underlined his “optimism, his hope, his confidence and his ambition” to become, after the recount, the first Sinn Féin leader to come to power in Dublin and put an end to the hegemony of the two major parties.
“This is the moment when people can really shape the next government, and we need a new government,” added the nationalist leader.
Forced to accept
With such a tie, the three parties will be forced to seek agreements among themselves and/or with other minority forces, whereas Harris and Martin were in favor of reissue, if necessary, the pact of the last legislatureinto which the Greens have entered, at the moment when they have already excluded from Sinn Féin.
The three leaders could also turn to the independent bloc, which obtains 14.6% of the votes, while groups like the Labor Party and the Social Democrats obtain 5 and 5.8% respectively and are presented as possible partners.
The most likely, according to observers, is that Martin and Harris join forces again, although the number of seats will determine who will lead the negotiations and who will be the new taoiseacha position that could turn around again.
During the campaign, Christian Democrats and centrists highlighted the good progress of the economy and called for the vote to maintain financial stability in a prosperous country, but affected by a serious crisis housing crisisthe deterioration of public services and the increase in immigration.
For its part, Sinn Féin has once again placed these issues at the center of its program in an attempt to repeat the electoral success of five years ago, to which it now adds the plan to organize a referendum on the reunification of Ireland before 2030.
